方正证券：国补接续稳定市场预期 政策组合拳利好春节家电消费

Core Insights - The report from Founder Securities highlights that a diversified policy mix is enhancing consumer traffic and effectively promoting festive consumption during the Spring Festival [1] - The implementation of national subsidy policies is expected to stabilize the home appliance market in the long term, with a decrease in uncertainty regarding post-subsidy expectations [1] Group 1: Short-term Consumption Boost - Various local and national policies, including trade-in programs, prize invoices, and consumption vouchers, are driving consumer spending during the Spring Festival [1][5] - The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises increased by 8.6% in the first four days of the Spring Festival compared to the same period in 2025 [7] Group 2: Long-term Market Outlook - The national subsidy program is projected to significantly boost the retail sales of consumer goods, with a forecasted 3.7% year-on-year growth in total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025, and a 13.5% increase in retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment [2] - The national subsidy policy will be rolled out starting in the second half of 2024, which is expected to accelerate the growth of home appliance retail sales beyond the overall retail growth rate [2] Group 3: Policy Adjustments and Innovations - In 2026, the national subsidy program will adjust its standards, focusing more on environmentally friendly and technologically advanced products, which will promote a shift towards high-end and green development in the industry [3] - Local innovations in the subsidy process, such as instant lottery results for trade-in subsidies, are enhancing channel efficiency and encouraging offline consumer spending [6]