2025年全球工业“一场奇特的反弹”

Core Insights - The global manufacturing sector in 2025 has shown resilience contrary to the expected narrative of "trade conflict = industrial recession" [1] - Morgan Stanley's report highlights that global industrial output (IP) is rebounding after a period of stagnation from 2022 to 2024, with the goods sector outperforming services during intense trade tensions [1] Demand and Growth Drivers - Three key variables are identified as driving this growth: capital expenditure (especially equipment investment), a resurgence in non-tech sectors, and a shift in inventory dynamics from a drag to a lean state [3][4] - The report anticipates a 2%-3% annualized growth in global industrial output in the coming months, supported by stable end-demand and low inventory levels [3][22] Industrial Output Performance - Global industrial output is projected to grow by 2.4% year-over-year in 2025, with significant growth concentrated in the first quarter [4] - The first quarter saw a remarkable annualized growth rate of 9.4%, attributed to preemptive production and procurement due to trade conflict concerns [4] Sectoral Analysis - The technology sector is expected to see a 9.1% year-over-year growth in 2025, driven by AI enthusiasm and capital expenditure from hyperscalers [5] - Non-tech sectors are also rebounding, with a projected growth of 1.2% in 2025, reversing the previous two years of contraction [5][6] Regional Insights - Developed markets are experiencing a manufacturing revival, with the U.S. and Eurozone expected to achieve growth rates of 1.7% and 1.8% respectively in 2025 [7] - The automotive sector is not the primary driver of this recovery, as other industries like aerospace and machinery are also showing improvement [9] Emerging Markets Dynamics - Emerging markets are projected to see a 3.8% year-over-year growth in commodity production, primarily driven by Asia, although this growth is unevenly distributed [10][13] Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure is a significant driver of demand, with global business equipment investment expected to grow by 6.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, marking the fastest growth in three years [14][16] - The report notes that equipment investment growth is not limited to the U.S., with a notable increase in other regions as well [16] Inventory Dynamics - Inventory levels have shifted from being a drag on growth to a lean state, providing a buffer for future production increases [18] - The report suggests that low inventory levels may necessitate additional restocking, potentially leading to higher industrial output than demand alone would suggest [18] Trade Conflict and Policy Implications - Recent judicial changes regarding tariffs are not expected to significantly alter the ongoing trade conflict narrative, as the U.S. government continues to implement tariffs [21] - The report concludes that the trade conflict remains a central theme affecting business confidence and industrial performance [21] Future Outlook - The combination of lean inventory, stable end-demand, and potential demand expansion from tech to non-tech sectors supports the forecast of 2%-3% annualized growth in global industrial output [22] - However, risks remain, including a potential slowdown in tech growth and labor market stagnation impacting retail and consumer goods demand [22]