“全市场的希望”！美股科技股陷入2022年来最糟开局，英伟达业绩成扭转颓势关键

Core Viewpoint - The performance of technology stocks in the U.S. market has significantly declined at the start of 2026, with Nvidia's upcoming earnings report seen as a critical factor in potentially reversing market sentiment [1]. Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The S&P 500 Information Technology sector has dropped 3.5% year-to-date, marking the worst start since 2022, with a clear divide between software and semiconductor/hardware stocks [1]. - Software companies are facing severe declines due to concerns over AI disruption, while semiconductor and hardware stocks have shown resilience, reflecting a revaluation of "AI beneficiaries" versus "AI impacted" companies [1][3]. Group 2: Software Sector Struggles - The software sector has experienced a historic decline, with the S&P 500 Software and Services Index down 23% year-to-date, the worst annual start on record [2]. - Notable individual stock declines include Intuit down approximately 46%, Salesforce down 30%, and Microsoft down nearly 20%, with Microsoft being the largest detractor from the S&P 500's performance this year [2]. Group 3: Semiconductor and Hardware Resilience - The semiconductor and equipment sector has increased by about 7% year-to-date, while the hardware sector has risen over 4%, contrasting sharply with the software sector's performance [3]. - Investor anxiety regarding the potential for AI disruption has led to a significant divergence in performance between semiconductor and software stocks, with funds flowing towards perceived AI beneficiaries [3]. Group 4: Impact of Technology Sector on Market - The technology sector holds a dominant position in the S&P 500, accounting for approximately 33% of the index, significantly higher than the second-largest sector, financials, at 12.4% [4]. - Despite other sectors benefiting from a rotation, the overall market's upward potential remains constrained if technology stocks continue to lag [4]. Group 5: Importance of Nvidia's Earnings Report - Nvidia's earnings report is crucial in the current context, as it may influence the overall sentiment in the technology sector and the broader market [5]. - Nvidia, along with other major companies, has been a key driver of the recent bull market, and its performance could determine the future trajectory of the tech sector [5].