Core Viewpoint - The company shows a significant improvement in profitability with adjusted operating profit increasing by over 30% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in revenue due to a more cautious operational strategy in social entertainment services [1]. Financial Performance - In 2025, revenue is projected to be 7.759 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 2.748 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 76.0% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit is forecasted at 1.734 billion yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of marketing expenses and content costs [1]. - The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be 2.860 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.2%, with a significant tax benefit impacting the figures [1]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Sales expenses are forecasted to be 409 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in the sales expense ratio by 2.42 percentage points [1]. User Growth and Revenue Streams - The company anticipates online music business revenue of 5.994 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with subscription revenue contributing 5.053 billion yuan, up 13.3% due to enhanced user experience and membership benefits [2]. - The number of paid users is increasing, contributing to the growth in online music subscription revenue, while the monthly active users (MAU) remain stable with a daily active users (DAU) to MAU ratio above 30% [2]. Cost Management - Content service costs are expected to be 3.734 billion yuan in 2025, down 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 48.1% of revenue, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points [3]. - Promotion and advertising expenses are projected at 296 million yuan, a significant reduction of 43.1% year-on-year, reflecting a more cautious promotional strategy [3]. Content Expansion and AI Features - The company is expanding its music copyright content by introducing new K-Pop labels and nurturing independent musicians, with over 1 million registered independent musicians by the end of 2025 [3]. - New AI features have been launched, including an AI singing assistant and personalized player backgrounds, enhancing the overall music experience [3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2026-2028 are 8.479 billion yuan, 9.116 billion yuan, and 9.699 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 2.059 billion yuan, 2.274 billion yuan, and 2.476 billion yuan [4]. - The adjusted net profit for the same period is projected at 2.179 billion yuan, 2.404 billion yuan, and 2.617 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times [4].
网易云音乐(9899.HK)点评报告：在线订阅收入稳健增长 大力发展AI功能