现代牧业(1117.HK)：双周期演进路径清晰且盈利弹性可期

Core Viewpoint - Modern Dairy is positioned as a leading player in the dairy industry, with a clear and steady path towards recovery, expected to reach the bottom of the industry cycle in 2025, followed by a rebound in 2026 and a peak in 2028, establishing a "stable milk and strong meat" pattern [1][2][3] Group 1: 2025 Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 6.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%, with raw milk business revenue at 5.07 billion yuan, down 0.8% year-on-year [1] - The decline in raw milk prices led to significant non-cash losses in fair value changes of biological assets, resulting in a net profit loss of 980 million yuan in the first half of 2025; however, cash EBITDA was 1.48 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - For 2026, the company anticipates a balanced supply and demand for raw milk, with prices stabilizing and increasing, alongside rising beef prices due to a supply gap; the acquisition of China Shengmu is expected to be completed, leading to improved profitability [2][3] - Cash profits are projected to grow due to industry capacity clearing and enhanced production efficiency, with raw milk business revenue expected to achieve mid-single-digit growth year-on-year [2] Group 3: 2028 Peak Outlook - The peak of the dairy and meat cycles is expected in 2028, with domestic fresh milk prices projected to rise to 3.6 yuan/kg and beef prices recovering to previous cycle highs; this will solidify the "stable milk and strong meat" pattern [3] - The company is expected to benefit from its scale advantages, leading production levels, and cost control capabilities, with an estimated total pre-tax profit increase of approximately 3.1 billion yuan from the reversal of the meat and milk cycles from 2025 to 2028 [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been adjusted upwards, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at -0.14, 0.09, and 0.17 yuan, reflecting increases of 14% for 2025 and 2026, and 22% for 2027 [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 1.90 HKD for 2026, based on a 19x PE valuation, recognizing its leading position in the domestic livestock industry and the potential for profit elasticity under the dual-cycle resonance [3]