Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-26 07:35Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant impact of geopolitical factors on global oil pricing, particularly due to the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran, which has led to a risk premium of $5 to $6 per barrel in oil prices [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that the current Brent crude oil price is supported by a combination of the aforementioned risk premium and a notable decline in global inventories, with a daily average reduction of 500,000 barrels last week and a 300,000 barrels daily average decline since February [1] - The report also notes that Iran's oil loading has reached its highest level since 2018, with record-high offshore Iranian oil inventories, indicating potential significant disruptions to global supply if geopolitical conflicts escalate [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, Goldman Sachs indicates that Russian oil production is under pressure from ongoing attacks in Ukraine, adding to short-term supply uncertainties, while new production capacities are expected to come online in the medium term [2] - New projects in Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Nigeria, Uganda, and the US are set to launch this year, with Saudi Arabia's Jafurah gas field already in production since December and the Zuluf oil field expected to come online within the year [2] - Considering the evolving geopolitical risks and supply-demand dynamics, Goldman Sachs reaffirms its previous forecast that Brent crude oil prices will decline to $60 per barrel by the fourth quarter of this year [2]