Goldman Sachs(US:GS) Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2026-02-26 10:09Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is undergoing a significant restructuring phase, with Brent and WTI crude oil prices expected to bottom out at $60/barrel and $56/barrel respectively by Q4 2026 due to declining risk premiums and increasing OECD commercial inventories [1][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The oil market will experience a substantial oversupply of up to 2.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with a peak oversupply of 2.9 million barrels per day in Q1 2026 [3][7]. - In 2027, the market is projected to shift from oversupply to a deficit, with average oversupply narrowing to 600,000 barrels per day and a supply shortfall of 30,000 barrels per day by Q4 2027 [5][7]. Regional Demand Changes - Demand from OECD countries is expected to stagnate between 45.9 million and 46.2 million barrels per day over the next three years, while non-OECD countries will drive global demand growth, increasing from 58.4 million barrels per day in 2025 to 60.5 million barrels per day in 2027 [8]. - India is identified as a key growth engine, with demand projected to rise from 5.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to 6.3 million barrels per day by 2027 [8]. Price Risk Outlook - Despite the bearish outlook for 2026, the overall price risk is skewed to the upside, indicating potential for a sharp rebound in oil prices due to unexpected supply disruptions or stronger-than-expected demand recovery in 2027 [3][8].