SCSF(SH:600779) Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-02-27 01:58Core Viewpoint - The future of Shui Jing Fang and its parent company Diageo is uncertain, with speculation about a potential sale of the Chinese liquor brand being fueled by recent performance discussions [2][3]. Investment and Performance Summary - Diageo acquired a 43% stake in the fullxing group for 517 million yuan in 2006, indirectly holding 16.87% of Shui Jing Fang [5] - The company continued to invest, fully acquiring the fullxing group for 2.2 billion yuan in 2013, making Shui Jing Fang the first foreign-controlled liquor stock in China [5] - By 2019, Diageo had increased its stake to 63.14% through two tender offers, totaling 6.774 billion yuan [5] - Diageo's total investment in Shui Jing Fang has exceeded 9.5 billion yuan, while the current market value of Shui Jing Fang is approximately 18.6 billion yuan, with Diageo's stake valued at around 11.7 billion yuan [6] Revenue and Profit Trends - Shui Jing Fang experienced stable growth after being acquired, with revenue increasing from 3.539 billion yuan in 2019 to an estimated 5.217 billion yuan in 2024, and net profit rising from 826 million yuan to 1.341 billion yuan [6] - However, projections for 2025 indicate a significant decline, with expected revenue of only 3.04 billion yuan, a 42% drop year-on-year, and net profit plummeting to 390 million yuan, a 71% decrease [8] Impact on Diageo - Shui Jing Fang's underperformance is negatively impacting Diageo's overall financial results, with the company's global net sales declining by 2.8% in the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, primarily due to the struggles in the U.S. spirits and Chinese liquor markets [10][11] - Excluding Shui Jing Fang, Diageo's sales decline would have been reduced to 0.5% [12] - The brand has shifted from being a strong asset to a noticeable liability in Diageo's financial reports [13]