Core Viewpoint - Kaiyuan Securities initiates coverage on Youran Dairy (09858) with a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's significant scale advantages and resilience during the industry cycle's bottom, with steady revenue growth expected [1] Industry Overview - The cyclical fluctuations in the dairy industry are slowing down, with a turning point in milk prices anticipated. The current cycle has seen a 31% decline in milk prices over the past four years, with a projected decrease in dairy cow inventory by 3.2% by September 2025, leading to a slowdown in milk production growth [2] - Demand for dairy products is showing marginal improvement, with the release of deep processing capacity and exploration of exports for bulk powder and live cattle, which may help narrow the supply-demand gap [2] Company Strengths - Youran Dairy is the industry leader with a dairy cow inventory of 622,000 heads and a raw milk production of 3.75 million tons in 2024, ensuring strong sales through strategic partnerships [3] - The company has a 30% share of specialty milk, leading to higher gross margins and smoothing out price fluctuations. Its subsidiary, Saikexing, is the largest dairy cattle breeding company in China, enhancing cost control through its feed business [3] - The company's earnings elasticity is significantly influenced by rising raw milk and beef prices, with projections indicating a potential increase in gross profit by 460 million yuan if milk prices rise by 3.5% [3]
开源证券：首予优然牧业“增持”评级 肉奶价格共振在即