多重风险压顶！瑞银下调美股市场评级，不再建议投资者加仓

Group 1 - UBS Group's Chief Global Equity Strategist Andrew Garthwaite has downgraded the investment rating for the US stock market from "overweight" to "benchmark allocation" due to rising risks of a weaker dollar, high valuations, and increased policy uncertainty in Washington [1] - UBS expects the euro to rise to $1.22 by the end of Q1 next year, indicating structural downside risks for the US dollar. Historical data shows that when the dollar trade-weighted index falls by 10%, US stocks typically lag by about 4 percentage points in unhedged terms [1] - Year-to-date, there has been a noticeable shift in capital flows from US stocks to overseas markets, with the MSCI Global (ex-US) index up approximately 8% and the S&P 500 index remaining flat [1] Group 2 - The long-term support for US stocks from corporate buybacks is weakening, with the current buyback yield for US stocks being roughly equivalent to global peers, and the combined shareholder return rate of dividends and buybacks for US stocks is about half that of Europe [2] - UBS calculates that the adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for US stocks is 35% higher than international markets, significantly above the average premium of about 4% since 2010 [2] - Policy uncertainties in the US, including tariff policies, credit card interest rate cap proposals, housing investment restrictions, drug pricing reviews, and discussions on regulations affecting military contractors' dividends and buybacks, are also exerting pressure [2] Group 3 - Despite the downgrade, Garthwaite does not adopt a fully bearish stance, noting that in the early stages of potential bubbles, the US economy and stock market often perform better. UBS anticipates that the advancement of artificial intelligence applications in the US will continue to support corporate profit growth [2] - UBS strategist Sean Simonds projects a year-end target of 7,500 points for the S&P 500 index, slightly below the average expectation of 7,629 points from mainstream strategists [2]