瑞银：将美股投资评级下调至“中性”，坚定维持对新兴市场股票“增持”评级

Core Viewpoint - UBS has downgraded its investment rating for US stocks to "neutral" while maintaining an "overweight" rating for emerging market equities, citing a higher risk of underperformance for US stocks compared to the potential for outperformance [1] Group 1: US Market Analysis - The US market faces multiple adverse factors, including low operating leverage compared to other regions, downside risks for the dollar, lackluster buyback returns, and high valuations [1] - Despite the rise of artificial intelligence and stronger-than-expected US economic growth, the market has experienced its largest drawdown relative to global markets in nearly 15 years [1] - UBS believes the dollar is facing asymmetric structural downside risks, with the recent weakness in the dollar having a much lower positive impact on US corporate earnings than usual [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Current buyback yields for US stocks are only in line with global peers and lower than those in the UK, affecting capital flows, corporate earnings, and valuations [1] - Communication with clients indicates a significant shift in capital towards global markets, with 45% of recent fund flows directed towards equities outside the US, supported by ETF flow data [1] Group 3: Outlook on US Stocks - UBS does not have a completely bearish outlook on US stocks, noting that in the early stages of potential bubbles, the US economy and stock market often exhibit certain advantages [1] - The firm expects that the development of AI applications in the US will continue to lead most regions, contributing to sustained corporate earnings growth [1]