芯片“首选”英伟达、取代存储，大摩的理由：股价滞涨已久，而“2026年增长见顶”论已破产

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley believes that Nvidia's fundamentals are strengthening despite stagnant stock prices over the past two quarters, attributing this to market concerns about growth sustainability until 2026 and potential market share erosion from ASIC and AMD competitors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - Nvidia's stock price has remained flat, reflecting market skepticism about the durability of its growth rather than a rejection of current strong performance [4]. - Morgan Stanley has reinstated Nvidia as a top pick in the semiconductor sector, maintaining an "overweight" rating with a target price of $260, viewing current valuations as a rare entry point [1][4]. - The report highlights that Nvidia's earnings expectations have been raised by 38% over the past six months, indicating that the pressure on stock prices is driven by concerns over the longevity of the growth cycle [4]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Evidence from the supply chain indicates a trend of large cloud providers locking in longer-term orders, with some instances of three-year contracts and full upfront payments, suggesting confidence in sustained demand [5][6]. - Morgan Stanley interprets these prepayments as signals of growth durability, as it is difficult to reconcile such commitments with plans for a slowdown in the near future [6]. Group 3: Cash Flow and Financial Health - Some cloud infrastructure businesses are experiencing negative cash flow, which could lead to a slowdown in capital expenditures next year, although this is not seen as a long-term issue due to strong balance sheets and financing options [7]. - The report suggests that while short-term cash flow may appear weak, it does not negate the potential for investment returns, particularly in the high-margin cloud GPU business [7]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Morgan Stanley projects that Nvidia will hold approximately 85% of the revenue share, with ASICs slightly above 10% and AMD below 5%, anticipating a slight decline in Nvidia's market share by 1-2 percentage points by 2026 due to its larger scale and supply constraints [2][8]. - Despite some erosion of its competitive moat, Nvidia remains the preferred choice for many customers, even in areas where lower total cost of ownership is emphasized [8]. - The report notes that major ASIC users and potential AMD customers could still contribute to Nvidia's business growth exceeding 80% in 2026 [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Events - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that semiconductor capacity cannot rapidly scale to meet demand, and feedback from the global supply chain indicates a trend of locking in growth through cash commitments extending into 2028 [9]. - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to clarify market share discussions and provide a comprehensive four-year roadmap, highlighting that competition extends beyond chips to include cabinet and ecosystem development [9].