新旧秩序竞争再升级，2024食品饮料如何突破旧格局？

Core Insights - The anticipated "revenge consumption" in 2023 did not materialize, leading to a weak recovery in the consumer market despite increased disposable income [2][10] - The food and beverage industry is expected to remain a key driver for economic recovery in 2024, with a projected annual growth rate of 6%-7% from 2024 to 2029 [10][11] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards a more rational approach, emphasizing value for money and emotional satisfaction in purchasing decisions [4][8] Economic Overview - The global economic landscape remains uncertain, with geopolitical tensions, high inflation, and upcoming elections in major economies affecting market dynamics [1] - In 2023, the CPI rose only 0.2%, while the PPI decreased by 3.0%, indicating a supply-demand imbalance and low consumer confidence [2] - Despite an increase in disposable income by 6.3% to 39,218 yuan per capita, savings rates surged, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment [2][10] Consumer Behavior Trends - A notable "consumption downgrade" trend emerged, where consumers prioritize cost-effective alternatives, leading to price wars among brands [4][9] - Contrastingly, sectors like tourism and entertainment saw significant growth, indicating a duality in consumer spending behavior [5][10] - The rise of "rational experientialism" suggests consumers are increasingly focused on the quality and experience of products rather than brand prestige [6][8] Industry Predictions for 2024 - Five key trends are anticipated in the food and beverage sector: health as a primary focus, emotional value in products, a return to immediate consumption experiences, the rise of white-label products, and the unstoppable advancement of AI technology [10][11][23] - The health food market is projected to grow significantly, with a market size of 352.3 billion yuan in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate of 6% [11][13] - Emotional value in products is becoming increasingly important, with nearly 50% of consumers willing to spend more for products that provide emotional satisfaction [14][16] Technological Impact - AI technology is set to revolutionize the food and beverage industry, with the market expected to grow from $7 billion in 2023 to $35.42 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 38.3% [23][24] - Companies are integrating AI across various processes, enhancing efficiency in production, supply chain management, and product development [23][24]