TF Securities(SH:601162) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2024-03-24 10:04Group 1: Coal Price Review and Outlook - The coal price from 2021 to 2023 exhibited a wave-like pattern closely related to seasonal heating and power generation characteristics [1][2] - In spring 2024, low inventory during the off-season is expected to keep coal prices fluctuating between 800-950 CNY/ton [2] - The overall outlook for 2024 suggests an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with coal prices potentially rebounding to 900-1100 CNY/ton in the second half of the year [2] Group 2: Coal Stock Performance Review and Outlook - From 2021 to 2023, coal stock prices followed a similar wave-like pattern, highly correlated with coal price fluctuations [6][7] - The main drivers for coal stocks in 2024 are expected to be significant valuation increases and substantial capacity growth [6][9] - Historical trends indicate that stocks with strong earnings growth in previous periods are likely to experience significant price increases later [7]