东吴证券：当前或还未到央行大规模直接购买国债的地步

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongwu Securities discusses the potential paths for the central bank to purchase government bonds, emphasizing that large-scale direct purchases may not be imminent in China, drawing parallels with practices in the US and Japan [1][4]. Group 1: Central Bank Bond Purchase Mechanisms - The central bank can theoretically purchase government bonds through three main methods: direct purchase in the primary market (not allowed), repurchase agreements in the secondary market (common practice), and outright purchases in the secondary market (potentially a last resort) [1][3]. - Direct purchases in the primary market are prohibited by Chinese central bank law, which restricts the types of bonds available for trading [3]. - The repurchase agreement method allows the central bank to provide short-term liquidity to smooth out funding fluctuations during bond issuance, making it a frequently used tool [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Comparisons - Historical instances of the central bank's outright bond purchases occurred in 1999, 2007, 2017, and 2022, often linked to special government bonds issued to enhance foreign exchange asset returns [4]. - The report highlights that the current conditions may not warrant large-scale direct bond purchases, as seen in the US and Japan, where such actions were taken during economic downturns when interest rates were already at their lower limits [4][5]. - The US Federal Reserve's bond purchases began during the 2008 financial crisis and again in 2020 during the pandemic, both times after lowering interest rates to near zero [4][5].