ASMPT(00522) 民生证券·2024-06-17 17:01Investment Rating - The report gives ASMPT a "Recommend" rating, citing its leading position in the semiconductor packaging equipment industry and growth potential driven by downstream computing applications [1] Core Views - ASMPT is a global leader in semiconductor packaging equipment, with strong product capabilities and a leading market share in die bonding and wire bonding equipment [1][18] - The company's advanced packaging business, driven by AI and high-performance computing, is expected to be a major growth driver, with a projected CAGR of 18% from 2024 to 2028 [1][23] - The SMT business is shifting focus to the automotive electronics market, which is expected to drive future growth [1][37] Business Overview SEMI Business - ASMPT holds a leading market share in die bonding (31% globally) and wire bonding (30% in China) equipment [18] - The advanced packaging segment contributed 22% of total revenue in 2023 (HK$3.1 billion), with TCB and HB equipment being key products for AI and HBM applications [1][22][23] - The SEMI business is expected to recover in 2024, driven by advanced packaging demand, with revenue projected to grow 25% YoY to HK$7.96 billion [42] SMT Business - The SMT business generated HK$8.33 billion in revenue in 2023, down 10% YoY, with automotive electronics being a key growth driver [1][37] - Revenue from automotive terminal applications reached approximately $410 million in 2023 [1][37] - The SMT business is expected to recover gradually, with revenue projected to grow 10% YoY in 2025 and 2026 [42] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from HK$14.7 billion in 2023 to HK$21.3 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 13.2% [1][43] - Net profit is expected to increase from HK$715 million in 2023 to HK$2.89 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 59.2% [1][43] - The PE ratio is expected to decline from 59x in 2023 to 14x in 2026, indicating significant earnings growth [1][43] Market Opportunities - The global semiconductor packaging equipment market is projected to grow from $5.78 billion in 2022 to $5.95 billion in 2025 [18] - The advanced packaging market is expected to grow from $44.3 billion in 2022 to $78.6 billion in 2028, driven by AI and high-performance computing [20][23] - The HBM market is expected to drive demand for TCB equipment, with ASMPT well-positioned to benefit from this trend [32][35] Competitive Advantages - ASMPT has a comprehensive product portfolio covering all major steps in the electronic manufacturing process [6] - The company has a strong R&D focus, with R&D expenses increasing from HK$1.95 billion in 2021 to HK$2.05 billion in 2023 [15] - Strategic acquisitions have strengthened ASMPT's product lines and market position, including the 2011 acquisition of SEAS and the 2014 acquisition of ALSI [18][19]