叮咚买菜公司更新报告：受益格局改善，有望重回增长

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Dingdong Maicai (DDL.N) [5] Core Views - The competitive landscape in the fresh e-commerce sector has improved, allowing Dingdong Maicai to potentially return to growth after a strategic contraction and cash flow recovery [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 21.5 billion, 22.6 billion, and 23.7 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with adjusted net profits of 300 million, 449 million, and 580 million RMB for the same years [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Previous Concerns: Intense Competition and UE Model Challenges - The UE model is highly sensitive to price and order volume, making profitability challenging [10] - Achieving high customer order value, order density, and business scale simultaneously is difficult [17] 2. Complexity of Fresh Produce Distribution and Limited Scale Effects - Fresh produce demand in China is characterized by short shelf life, non-standardization, and localized supply [18] - The traditional supply chain is fragmented, leading to low matching efficiency and high transaction costs [23] 3. Market Dynamics: Leader Contraction and Regional Fragmentation - The tightening liquidity has led to a contraction among leading players, creating regional and category segmentation [3] - Dingdong Maicai benefits from the strategic adjustments of competitors like Hema, which are shifting towards profitability [41] 4. Dingdong Maicai's Recovery and Growth Strategy - The company has shifted its strategic focus towards profitability since Q3 2021, concentrating on high-consumption potential areas [3] - Plans to open 60 new warehouses in 2024, particularly in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, are underway [3] - The company aims to expand its product categories to enhance repurchase rates and profit margins [3] 5. Financial Summary - The financial outlook shows a recovery with projected revenues and adjusted net profits improving over the next few years [4]