贵州茅台：批价复盘与展望：从历史复盘看茅台批价演绎

Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 2286.53 RMB [4] Core Views - The recent fluctuation in Feitian Moutai's wholesale price is attributed to weak demand and short-term channel behavior, with limited downside risk expected [2] - Post-risk clearance, Moutai's wholesale price and stock price are anticipated to stabilize and reach a new equilibrium [2] - Moutai's wholesale price serves as a crucial indicator for the liquor industry, driven by supply-demand dynamics and financial attributes [9] - Historical price trends show that Moutai's price increases are often driven by multiple supply-demand factors, while financial attributes amplify price cycles [22] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 127,554 million RMB in 2022 to 232,697 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 16.3% [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 62,717 million RMB in 2022 to 118,722 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 17.0% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 49.93 RMB in 2022 to 94.51 RMB in 2026 [3] - ROE is expected to improve from 31.8% in 2022 to 41.5% in 2026 [3] Historical Price Analysis - Moutai's wholesale price has experienced two rises and three falls over the past 15 years, with price increases driven by supply-demand factors and financial attributes reinforcing price cycles [22] - The first rise (2008-2011) was driven by infrastructure investment and dual demand for consumption and investment [25] - The first fall (2012-2016) was due to industry adjustments, shrinking demand, and inventory pressure [30] - The second rise (2016-2021) was fueled by real estate prosperity and the financial attributes of Moutai [35] - The second fall (2021-2022) was marked by a peak in asset prices and declining demand [43] - The third fall (since March 2024) is attributed to weak demand recovery [54] Current Price Fluctuation Analysis - The recent price drop is primarily due to weak demand and intense competition among scalpers and e-commerce platforms [56] - The company has adjusted its supply strategy to stabilize prices, and the panic-driven price fluctuations are expected to subside [56] - Three methods are used to estimate the short-term equilibrium price range for Feitian Moutai, suggesting a bottom range of 2000-2200 RMB for loose bottles [52] Industry Comparison - Moutai's financial performance and valuation metrics are compared with other leading liquor companies, showing its strong position in the industry [70] - Moutai's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 30.88 in 2022 to 16.31 in 2026, reflecting its strong earnings growth potential [3]