GOLDWIND(SZ:002202) Guoxin Securities·2024-06-19 09:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][20]. Core Views - The company, Goldwind Technology, maintains a leading position in the wind turbine market and is poised to benefit from the growth in offshore wind and export business. Recently, it won a bid for a 850,000 kW offshore wind project in Jiangsu, with a contract value of 3.16 billion yuan [3][20]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in offshore wind turbine deliveries in 2024, driven by emerging market demand and cost reduction from technology shifts. The current dynamic valuation is at a historical low, with a 2023 price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.8 [3][20]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The domestic wind power market experienced a downturn in 2022-2023, with a negative growth in installed capacity. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2024 due to the large-scale construction of new energy bases [4]. - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 50.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, while net profit was 1.33 billion yuan, down 44.2% year-on-year. The decline in profit was attributed to increased competition and rising costs [4][19]. - The company’s gross margin has been declining since 2021, but there was a notable increase in the first quarter of 2024, with a gross margin of 26.1% [4]. Sales and Market Position - In 2023, the company sold 13.8 GW of wind turbines, maintaining stable sales. The sales structure is shifting towards larger turbines, with over 50% of sales coming from turbines in the 4-6 MW range [12]. - As of the end of 2023, the company had external orders totaling 29.8 GW, including 4.7 GW from overseas [12]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.65 billion yuan, 2.41 billion yuan, and 3.23 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 23.9%, 46.2%, and 34.1% [18][20]. - Revenue is expected to be 49.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decrease, followed by growth to 55.01 billion yuan in 2025 and 59.28 billion yuan in 2026 [19][20]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the company are projected to be 18.8, 12.9, and 9.6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [20]. - The company’s price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to remain low, indicating potential undervaluation [3][20].