Haohua Energy(SH:601101) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-06-19 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company's coal business is expected to contribute significantly to earnings growth, with stable production and cost advantages. The release of new coking coal production capacity is anticipated to enhance earnings flexibility. The forecast for net profit from 2024 to 2026 is adjusted to 1.76 billion, 1.97 billion, and 2.03 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.8%, 12.5%, and 3.0% [1][29]. - The company is focusing on building an integrated "coal-chemical-transport" industry chain, which is expected to yield significant synergies [1][2]. - The company has a high cash flow and a declining debt ratio, indicating that an increase in dividend payout is likely in the future [1][39]. Summary by Sections Coal Business - As of the end of 2023, the company's coal production capacity reached 19.3 million tons per year, with rights capacity at 13.28 million tons per year. The company is in a ramp-up phase, particularly with the Red Two coal mine starting trial operations [1][15]. - The company plans to achieve a coal production capacity of 30 million tons by the end of 2025, focusing on investment opportunities in coal-rich regions [1][29]. - The company has maintained industry-leading cost control, with a gross profit margin for coal business expected to improve due to the production of high-margin coking coal [1][20]. Non-Coal Business - The methanol business has faced challenges with declining prices and rising costs, but profitability is expected to improve starting in 2024 [1][30]. - The railway transportation business has maintained a stable profit margin, with an average gross margin of 59.7% from 2017 to 2023 [1][39]. Financial Health - The company's dividend payout ratio was 48.46% in 2023, up 12 percentage points year-on-year, with a dividend yield of 5.5% as of December 31, 2023 [1][27]. - The company's debt ratio has been steadily declining, with a cash-to-debt ratio of 104.46% and an interest coverage ratio of 12.04 times, indicating strong financial health [1][39].