Haohua Energy(601101) 开源证券·2024-06-19 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by over 20% in the next 6 to 12 months [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to see significant growth in coal production and profitability due to the commissioning of the Hong Er and Hong Yi coal mines, with projected coal production reaching 1,898 million tons in 2024 and increasing thereafter [31]. - The company's financial health is strong, with a cash-to-debt ratio of 104.46% and a declining debt ratio of 51.36% as of 2023, indicating good debt management and liquidity [21][22]. - The dividend payout ratio has been steadily increasing, reaching 48.46% in 2023, which is expected to continue as the company maintains a high level of cash reserves and profitability [16][21]. Financial Summary - Balance Sheet (in million CNY): - Current Assets: 6,153 in 2023, projected to increase to 7,574 in 2024 [3]. - Total Assets: 29,917 in 2023, expected to grow to 34,895 by 2026 [3]. - Total Liabilities: 15,365 in 2023, projected to rise to 18,233 in 2024 [3]. - Income Statement (in million CNY): - Revenue: 8,437 in 2023, expected to reach 10,419 in 2024 [3]. - Operating Profit: 2,263 in 2023, projected to increase to 4,138 in 2024 [3]. - Net Profit: 1,711 in 2023, expected to grow to 2,614 in 2024 [3]. - Cash Flow Statement (in million CNY): - Operating Cash Flow: 3,655 in 2023, projected to decrease to 1,982 in 2024 [3]. - Net Profit: 1,711 in 2023, expected to increase to 2,614 in 2024 [3]. Growth Potential - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through increased production capacity and improved sales prices for coal, with projected unit prices rising from 500 CNY/ton in 2024 to 520 CNY/ton by 2026 [31]. - The coal business is anticipated to have a gross margin of 66.1% by 2026, reflecting improved operational efficiency and pricing power [34]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend yield of 5.5% as of December 31, 2023, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [16][21].