NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(600219) 德邦证券·2024-06-20 01:30Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Nanshan Aluminum with a "Buy" rating [1] Core Views - Nanshan Aluminum has a complete aluminum industry chain, with high-end products accounting for 14% of total sales in 2023, up by more than 1 percentage point YoY [1] - The company's high-end products contributed 30% of total aluminum product gross profit in 2023, an increase of nearly 9 percentage points YoY [1] - The company is expanding its alumina capacity in Indonesia, with a total planned capacity of 5.4 million tons, and is focusing on high-end products such as automotive sheets, aviation sheets, and battery aluminum foil [2] - The report forecasts revenue of RMB 31.848 billion, RMB 34.177 billion, and RMB 36.733 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of RMB 3.84 billion, RMB 4.196 billion, and RMB 4.615 billion, respectively [2] Upstream Operations - Nanshan Aluminum has a total of 3.4 million tons of alumina production capacity, including 1.4 million tons domestically and 2 million tons in Indonesia [2] - The company plans to build an additional 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia, bringing the total planned capacity to 5.4 million tons [2] - The alumina market is expected to remain tight in 2024, supporting high alumina prices [2] Downstream Operations - The company is focusing on high-end products such as automotive sheets, aviation sheets, and battery aluminum foil [2] - Automotive sheet demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14% from 2020 to 2026, with the company having 200,000 tons of in-production capacity and 200,000 tons under construction [2] - Aviation sheet demand is expected to grow significantly, with global aircraft deliveries projected to increase by 86.34% from 2022 to 2041 [2] - Battery aluminum foil demand is expected to reach 542,500 tons by 2025, with the company having 91,000 tons of aluminum foil capacity, including 21,000 tons dedicated to battery foil [2] Financial Projections - The report forecasts revenue growth of 10.4%, 7.3%, and 7.5% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth of 10.5%, 9.3%, and 10.0%, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 11.53x, 10.55x, and 9.59x for 2024-2026, lower than the average PE of comparable companies [2] Industry Outlook - The global automotive sheet market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the electrification of vehicles [2] - The aviation industry is expected to see strong growth in aircraft deliveries, driving demand for aviation aluminum sheets [2] - The battery aluminum foil market is expected to expand rapidly, supported by the growth of the new energy vehicle industry [2]