GUJING(000596) Huafu Securities·2024-06-21 11:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company, with a current price of 225.21 yuan [4][6][11]. Core Views - The company is well-positioned in the Anhui liquor market, benefiting from a strong local economy and a growing middle-class consumer base, which is expected to drive demand for mid-range liquor products [3][24][41]. - The company's "Year Original" product line is a key driver of growth, with a well-structured product range that covers various price points, allowing for effective market segmentation and brand strength [3][50]. - The report anticipates significant revenue growth for the company, with projected net profits of 58.69 billion yuan, 73.51 billion yuan, and 89.58 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.9%, 25.3%, and 21.9% respectively [4][9]. Summary by Sections Economic Environment - Anhui's economy is rapidly developing, with a GDP share of 3.73% of the national total as of 2023, and a consistent increase in per capita disposable income, which has outpaced the national average for 12 consecutive years [27][31]. - The liquor market in Anhui is substantial, ranking third in national consumption and fifth in production, providing ample growth opportunities for local enterprises [24][28]. Company Overview - Gujing Gongjiu has evolved into a "liquor aircraft carrier," with a stable ownership structure and a management team with extensive practical experience [15][20]. - The company has successfully navigated through various challenges, focusing on its core liquor business and strategically expanding its product offerings [20][22]. Product Strategy - The "Year Original" series is highlighted as a core component of the company's growth strategy, with a well-defined product line that spans multiple price segments, ensuring no gaps in the market [3][50]. - The company has adopted flexible channel strategies, emphasizing strong control over distribution both within and outside Anhui, which has contributed to its market penetration and profitability [3][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for the company indicate a steady increase, with expected revenues of 24.61 billion yuan, 29.31 billion yuan, and 34.57 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, reflecting growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 18% respectively [4][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are 11.10 yuan, 13.91 yuan, and 16.95 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [4][9].