百亚股份：更新报告：618战报出炉，自由点多平台强势领先

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 27.54 RMB [3][5] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong growth across multiple platforms during the 618 shopping festival, with significant brand-building success on Douyin (TikTok) [1][3] - Revenue is expected to maintain steady growth in Q2, with potential profit improvement from falling raw material prices and product mix optimization [3] - The company's 2024-2026 EPS forecasts remain unchanged at 0.70/0.81/0.99 RMB [3] Financial Performance - 2024E revenue is projected at 2,675 million RMB, a 24.7% YoY increase [4] - Net profit (attributable to parent company) is forecasted to grow 26.2% YoY to 301 million RMB in 2024E [4] - Gross margin improved by 7.50 percentage points YoY and 1.16 percentage points QoQ in 2024Q1 [3] Product Performance - The probiotic sanitary napkin product sold over 1.4 million sets during the 618 period (May 20 - June 20, 2024) [3] - The company's 5A user base exceeded 210 million, with A3 users surpassing 71 million [3] - Brand search volume increased by 330% YoY, with total exposure exceeding 1.5 billion [3] Platform Performance - Douyin: Maintained top position with over 290% YoY growth during 618 [3] - Tmall: Achieved 120%+ YoY growth, ranking second in personal care sales [3] - Pinduoduo: Recorded 380%+ YoY growth, ranking second in sanitary napkin sales [3] - JD.com: Achieved 230%+ YoY growth, topping the personal care speed ranking twice [3] Regional Expansion - The company is expanding steadily in peripheral provinces, with Guangdong and Jiangsu showing excellent performance [3] - Hunan province is expected to cross the breakeven point, with potential for non-linear profit growth after scale effects are realized [3] Financial Projections - 2024E operating income is projected at 2,675 million RMB, with net profit of 301 million RMB [4] - ROE is expected to increase from 17.2% in 2023A to 20.4% in 2024E [4] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 43.10 in 2023A to 34.14 in 2024E [4]