Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 60.83, indicating a potential upside of 32.5% from the current price of HKD 45.90 [3][27]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong online sales growth during the "618" shopping festival, with its brand "可复美" achieving over 60% year-on-year growth in GMV, while "可丽金" saw over 100% growth [1][11]. - The report highlights the successful performance of key products, particularly the collagen sticks and new focus cream, which have significantly contributed to the overall growth of the brand [1][11]. - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, especially with the anticipated approval of injectable collagen products within the year [1][27]. Financial Performance Summary - Sales revenue is projected to grow from RMB 4,636 million in FY24 to RMB 7,682 million in FY26, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% [2][27]. - The net profit is expected to increase from RMB 1,738 million in FY24 to RMB 2,791 million in FY26, indicating a strong profitability outlook [2][27]. - The gross margin is forecasted to remain stable around 83% over the next few years, showcasing the company's strong pricing power and cost management [2][27]. Market Positioning - The company ranks 11th in the Tmall fast-moving consumer goods sales ranking and 9th in the Douyin beauty list during the "618" festival, indicating a strong market presence among domestic brands [1][9][10]. - The report notes that the company's core products have maintained top positions in their respective categories on major e-commerce platforms, further solidifying its competitive advantage [1][11]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a 23.2x adjusted P/E ratio for FY24 and an 18.8x adjusted P/E ratio for FY25, suggesting that the stock is attractively valued relative to its growth prospects [1][27]. - The DCF analysis indicates a fair value of HKD 60.83 per share, based on a WACC of 10.6% and a perpetual growth rate of 3.0% [24][27].
巨子生物：618收官，双品牌全渠道延续高增长