YTL(SZ:000960) Guoyuan Securities·2024-06-24 12:30Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 15.39 CNY [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has a strong position in the tin and indium industries, being the largest producer and processor of tin in China and holding the world's largest indium resource [2][3]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 42.36 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.54% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.61% to 1.41 billion CNY [2][10]. - The company expects a revenue of 40.3 billion CNY in 2024, with total non-ferrous metal production projected at 348,600 tons [2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a comprehensive industrial layout involving exploration, mining, smelting, and deep processing of metals like tin, copper, zinc, and indium [2]. - It has maintained the highest tin production and sales globally since 2005, with a market share of 47.92% in the domestic market and 22.92% globally in 2023 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 8.4 billion CNY, down 24.47% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 22.09% to 326 million CNY [2]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 9.15%, with a net margin of 3.60% [8]. Production and Sales - In 2023, tin ingot production reached 65,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.61%, contributing 10.98 billion CNY to total revenue [2]. - The company’s production capacity includes 80,000 tons/year for tin smelting and 12,500 tons/year for cathode copper [2]. Market Trends - Global tin supply is expected to remain inelastic, while demand from emerging industries like photovoltaics and electric vehicles is projected to grow [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in solder demand as the semiconductor cycle stabilizes, highlighting tin's role as "electronic glue" [9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the integration of the tin industry chain and the development of deep processing capabilities [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 predict net profits of 2.07 billion CNY, 2.30 billion CNY, and 2.61 billion CNY, respectively [9][10].