Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading spicy snack food enterprise in China, with a strong brand appeal among young consumers and a market share of 6.2% in 2021, ranking first in both seasoned noodle products and spicy vegetable snack categories [13] - The spicy snack food industry has a promising outlook, with retail sales growing from CNY 113.9 billion in 2016 to CNY 172.9 billion in 2021 (CAGR=8.7%), and the company's products still have significant room for growth [21] - The company's revenue grew from CNY 2.752 billion in 2018 to CNY 4.872 billion in 2023 (CAGR=12.10%), driven by its strong product portfolio and market position [13] Product Performance - Seasoned Noodle Products: Revenue grew from CNY 2.162 billion in 2018 to CNY 2.649 billion in 2023 (CAGR=3.35%), with average selling price (ASP) increasing from CNY 13.90/kg to CNY 20.49/kg [4] - Vegetable Products: Revenue surged from CNY 298 million in 2018 to CNY 2.119 billion in 2023 (CAGR=48.05%), driven by products like "Moyu Shuang" and "Fengchi Seaweed" [4] - Bean Products & Others: Revenue declined from CNY 292 million in 2018 to CNY 204 million in 2023 (CAGR=-6.93%), but ASP increased from CNY 22.41/kg to CNY 38.36/kg [30] Channel Strategy - The company's offline channel revenue accounted for 90.40% of total revenue from 2018 to 2023, with a CAGR of 11.60%, while online channel revenue grew at a CAGR of 17.09% [32] - The company has 1,708 offline distributors as of December 31, 2023, and has been actively expanding into snack vending channels, selling 433,716 boxes of products through this channel in September 2023 [36] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin increased from 34.72% in 2018 to 47.68% in 2023, driven by product mix optimization and cost management [19] - Net profit grew from CNY 476 million in 2018 to CNY 880 million in 2023 (CAGR=13.07%), with net profit margin increasing from 17.26% to 18.01% [19] Industry Outlook - The Chinese snack food market is expected to grow from CNY 825.1 billion in 2021 to CNY 1.1472 trillion in 2026 (CAGR=6.8%), with spicy snack food expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.6% during the same period [21] - The company's market share in the spicy snack food industry is 6.2%, significantly higher than its competitors, and it is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable companies in the industry [22] Valuation - The report forecasts the company's revenue to reach CNY 5.599 billion, CNY 6.367 billion, and CNY 7.136 billion in 2024-2026, with net profit of CNY 1.030 billion, CNY 1.209 billion, and CNY 1.393 billion, respectively [41] - The company is valued at a PE range of 15-19x (2024E), with a target price range of HKD 7.10-8.99 per share [41]
卫龙美味：中国辣味休食龙头，盈利能力优异，第二曲线快速成长