Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.39 HKD per share based on a 30x PE valuation for 2024 [4]. Core Views - The FDA has approved NJOY's menthol-flavored e-cigarettes for sale in the U.S., which includes four products from NJOY, a key customer of the company [3]. - The approval of menthol flavors is expected to alleviate policy concerns for the company, as menthol flavors account for 27.8% of the U.S. e-cigarette market and 61.0% of the pod-based e-cigarette market [3]. - The approval of NJOY's main products is likely to benefit the company, given its deep and stable partnership with NJOY, which is supported by Altria's financial and channel backing [3]. - There is a possibility of the marketing denial order (MDO) for British American Tobacco's menthol products being revoked, based on the recent approval of NJOY's menthol products [3]. - Regulatory enforcement on non-compliant disposable products is expected to tighten, as most disposable e-cigarettes have not passed the PMTA [3]. - The company forecasts a recovery in domestic markets and stable overseas markets, with expected net profits of 1.74 billion, 2.15 billion, and 2.55 billion RMB for 2024-2026 [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 12,145 million RMB, with a projected decline of 11.7% in 2023, followed by a recovery with a growth rate of 15.2% in 2024 [6]. - The net profit for 2022 was 2,510 million RMB, with a significant decline of 52.5% year-on-year, and a projected net profit of 1,645 million RMB for 2023 [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 0.41 RMB, expected to decrease to 0.27 RMB in 2023, with a gradual recovery to 0.42 RMB by 2026 [6]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2022 was 2,585 million RMB, with a forecasted decline to 1,731 million RMB in 2023 [6].
思摩尔国际：NJOY薄荷醇味过审，期待思摩尔订单弹性