证 券 研 究 报 告 新消费需求多点迸发，竞争格局重构进行时 轻工消费2025年夏季策略 证券分析师：屠亦婷 A0230512080003 黄莎 A0230522010002 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 研究支持：张海涛 A0230524080003 张文静 A0230524120005 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 2025.07.11 新消费需求多点迸发，竞争格局重构进行时 新消费 国内人口代际变化 Z世代消费主力军 技术驱动 产品从0到1验证 海外需求变化 供应链 全球化 机遇 国际客户供应链全 球化趋势确认 高股息 行业格局成熟 资本开支放缓 国货品牌崛起 情感、悦己需求 AI硬件 AI软件 电子烟（监管政策） 品类渗透率提升 保温杯、家居等 消费电子包装 包装 家居 国补以旧换新 国货个护：百亚股份、豪悦护理、登康口腔 IP潮玩：布鲁可、晨光股份、 广博股份、创源股份 黄金珠宝： 潮宏基 宠物用品：天元宠物、 朝云集团、依依股份、 源飞宠物 两轮车：雅迪控股、爱玛科 技、九号公司 AI床垫：慕 思股份、喜 临门 家居：顾家家居、公 牛集团 AI眼镜：康耐特光学、明月 镜片、英派斯 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.45%, down 107 points, closing at 23,808 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - Early trading volume in Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 109.5 billion [1] Stablecoin Regulation - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to release guidelines for stablecoin regulations this month, aiming to issue licenses within the year [1] - Stocks related to stablecoins saw significant gains, with Guotai Junan International rising by 8.2%, ZhongAn Online increasing by 5.64%, and Yike rising over 9% [1] New Tea Beverage Market - A subsidy war in the takeaway market has ignited the new tea beverage sector, with Guming and Cha Baidao both rising over 9% [1] Digital Health Services - Health Road saw its stock rise over 9% as its controlling shareholder voluntarily extended the lock-up period, focusing on a digital health service platform [1] Gaming Industry - Morgan Stanley reported that Macau's gaming revenue in June increased by 19% year-on-year to MOP 21.1 billion, exceeding analyst predictions by 9% [1] - Gaming stocks continued their upward trend, with Amax Holdings up 3.7%, Melco International Development up 1.6%, and MGM China up 2.1% [1] Medical Device Sector - In response to China's reciprocal restrictions on EU medical devices, the National Medical Products Administration issued support for high-end medical devices [1] - Medical device stocks experienced broad gains, with Spring Medical up 1.86%, Yongsheng Medical up 7.27%, and Xinwei Medical-B up 5.5% [1] Company Developments - China Rare Earth Holdings plans to spin off its gold business for independent listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, potentially seeking financing before the spin-off [2] - Jihong Co. saw its stock rise over 10%, with a projected over 55% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of the year [3] - H&H International Holdings is expected to see a decline in net profit by 45% to 65% for the first half of the year, resulting in a drop of over 6% in its stock price [4]

点击蓝字，关注我们 7月4日为美国独立日（Independence Day），美国股票市场休市一天。 今日上午港股 1.百胜中国 (09987) 涨超 3% ， 近日发布餐厅营运智能体 Q 睿 将设立创新基金转化营运需求为实际应 用。 6.腾讯音乐 - SW (01698) 涨近 3% ， 机构称近期收购计划将进一步增强公司整体内容供给。 7.吉宏股份 (02603) 涨超 7% ， 公司 A 股涨停 上半年归母净利同比预增逾 55%。 8.光伏股集体回落， 信义光能 (00968) 跌 4.86%，福莱特玻璃 (06865) 跌 3.88%，新特能源 (01799) 跌 3.19%，信义玻璃 (00868) 跌 2.64%。 9.快手 - W (01024) 涨超 3% ， 将启动直播大舞台百城计划 打造多方协同直播生态体系。 10.黄金股再度承压走低， 山东黄金 (01787) 跌 5.09%，中国黄金国际 (02099) 跌 3.44%，灵宝黄金 (03330) 跌 2.68%，赤峰黄金 (06693) 跌 2.33%。 11.中船防务 (00317) 逆市涨超 3% ， 中国船舶整合并购重组方案获通过 ...

行业研究丨深度报告丨轻工制造 [Table_Title] 新消费蔚然成风，传统盘踵事增华 ——轻工行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] IP 衍生品情绪消费星河浩瀚，本土文化出海；新烟大势所趋，长坡厚雪的景气赛道；个护供给 创新与渠道变革给予品牌发展新机遇；家居需求磨底，供给缓慢退出，龙头类债投资；造纸供 需有望逐渐平衡，周期磨底回升可期；包装关注高股息方向，以及金属包装格局优化；电动两 轮车短期业绩高增，长期看份额提升、产业布局和出海；出口在不确定的关税政策中寻找确定 性的成长。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 蔡方羿 米雁翔 仲敏丽 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490520070002 SAC：S0490522050001 SFC：BUV463 应奇航 章颖佳 SAC：S0490524080008 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 42 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 轻工制造 cjzqdt11111 [Tabl ...

思摩尔国际(06969.HK)今日股价大跌9.95%，收盘于17.92港元/股，最新市值1109亿港元，今日成交额达 12.8亿港元。 亿纬锂能目前正在着力发展动力电池产业，投资颇大，正在计划香港上市寻求融资。 因为政策原因，2021年思摩尔国际的业绩受到了很大冲击，业绩一直在下滑。从2021年到2024年，思摩 尔国际的营收分别是137.55亿、121.45亿、112.03亿和117.99亿元，净利润则分别是52.87亿、25.10亿、 16.45亿和13.03亿元。 2024年2月份，思摩尔国际股价最低只有4.51港元/股。 思摩尔国际近些年没有把握住一次性电子烟机会，在一次性电子烟爆发时显得有些落寞，但近期主要销 售国禁止一次性电子烟销售，给该公司带来机会，思摩尔国际主要为国际大公司代工，这些国际大公司 在合规方面走在前列，思摩尔国际是合规的受益者。 去年下半年思摩尔国际雾化电子烟ODM业务有所改善，自主品牌收入占比提升至21%。欧洲一次性烟 禁令导致中国电子烟出口额同比下降9.4%，思摩尔国际HNB业务与英美烟草深度合作，英美烟草计划 2025年中推出新型HNB产品GloHilo，思摩尔为核心供应商。 ...

今日上午港股 1. 海天味业 (03288) 首挂涨超3%， 全球酱油龙头上市（全球市占率6.2%），募资100亿港元，中国调味 品市占率4.8%居首。 2. 稳定币概念股普涨， 连连数字涨11%、移卡涨9%、众安在线涨8%，香港《稳定币条例》落地催生行 业利好预期。 3. 黑芝麻智能 (02533) 涨超3%， 拟收购AI芯片企业，扩充汽车/端侧AI产品线，强化全场景解决方案能 力。 点击蓝字，关注我们 8. 龙蟠科技 (02465) 涨超6%， 政策推动固态电池产业化加速（工信部专项研发60亿），公司高镍前驱体 材料适配固态电池技术。 9. 思摩尔国际 (06969) 再跌逾5% ，股东亿纬锂能第三次宣布减持3.5%股份（2.16亿股），持股降至27% 失控股地位。 4. 德林控股 (01709) 涨超3%， 年度溢利预增10%-30%（至1.1-1.3亿港元），子公司突触科技获数千万港 元A轮融资。 5. 晶泰科技 (02228) 涨超4%， AI研发平台产出首款临床候选药PRMT5抑制剂PE-0260，2025年下半年启 动临床。 6. 黄金股集体下跌， 灵宝黄金跌4%、珠峰黄金跌4%，现货金价回调拖 ...

Group 1: Net Inflows and Outflows - Meituan-W recorded a net inflow of HKD 10.75 billion, while BYD Company saw a net inflow of HKD 3.84 billion [1] - Xiaomi Group-W experienced a net outflow of HKD 16.12 billion, and Tencent Holdings faced a net outflow of HKD 14.54 billion [1][4] - Southbound funds have continuously net bought Meituan for 14 days, totaling HKD 154.8559 billion, and have net sold Tencent for 5 days, totaling HKD 45.2192 billion [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Old Puh Gold (06181.HK) received a net inflow of HKD 2.36 billion, with a new product launch expected to enhance consumer experience and sales growth due to rising gold prices [6] - Zhong An Online (06060.HK) attracted a net inflow of HKD 1.62 billion, benefiting from the upcoming stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong and strong growth in medical and auto insurance premiums [7] - Meituan-W's recent performance showed significant growth in new customers, particularly among the post-95 generation, with over 50 product categories seeing sales growth exceeding 100% year-on-year [7]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The June stock recommendations from 42 brokerage firms show a significant increase in the number of recommended stocks, with the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector returning to the top of the industry recommendation rankings after three years, indicating a renewed market interest in cyclical industries [1][3]. Stock Recommendations - A total of 332 stocks received 457 recommendations, with 42 stocks from the ChiNext gaining 53 recommendations, 45 stocks from the STAR Market receiving 59 recommendations, and 43 Hong Kong stocks getting 62 recommendations, marking an increase of 6 and 7 stocks respectively compared to the previous month [1]. - Six stocks received recommendations from five brokerage firms: China Merchants Bank, Yara International, Smoore International, SF Holding, Qingdao Beer, and Haida Group [1]. - Six stocks received recommendations from four brokerage firms: Zijin Mining, China Mobile, Zhenhua Heavy Industries, Tencent Holdings, Hangzhou Bank, and Dongpeng Beverage [1]. Industry Rankings - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector achieved a recommendation rate of 10.2%, reclaiming the top position, while the electronics sector fell to second place with a recommendation rate of 9.3% [3]. - The food and beverage sector ranked third with a recommendation rate of 6.58%, and the machinery equipment sector ranked fourth with a rate of 6.35% [3]. - The coal industry saw a significant increase in recommendation rate by 59.6%, while the transportation sector increased by 52.1%, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [3]. Declining Industry Interest - The retail trade sector experienced a notable decline in recommendation rate by 43.17%, attributed to renewed trade tensions and previous excessive price increases [4]. - The defense and military industry saw a decrease of 34.77%, mainly due to the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation [4]. - The automotive sector's recommendation rate dropped by 30.99%, reflecting concerns over industry competition [4]. Performance of Brokerage Recommendations - In May, 30 out of 45 brokerage firms reported positive returns, with the top performers being Guoyuan Securities (6.28%) and Caitong Securities (5.93%) [5][6]. - As of May 30, 36 out of 45 brokerage firms had positive returns for the year, with 16 firms achieving returns close to or exceeding 10% [6]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that June will see continued improvement in returns and win rates, with a focus on large-cap growth stocks, although the market is expected to remain volatile [7]. - The market sentiment has been affected by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies and slow progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations, which are key factors influencing market risk appetite [7].

近日，沉寂已久的电子烟板块受到市场的关注。 智通财经APP注意到，自今年四月中旬以来电子烟板块反复上行。以行业龙头思摩尔国际(06969)为例， 今年五月以来短短十余个交易日，公司股价已累涨超30%。5月23日，公司股价再度上行，一度突破 18.82港元，创下近年以来的新高水平。不过需要注意的是，尽管股价较年初近乎翻倍，但仍不及公司 市值历史高点的四分之一，当前估值仍处于历史低位。 股价新高的背后，思摩尔国际的"春天"来临了？ 其中，电子烟与HNB是新型烟草的两大核心品类，全球市场规模占比分别达到28%及45%。 细分来看，雾化电子烟(E-Vapour)的全球规模212亿美元，2018-2023年期间的年复合增长率为6.6%。其 中，电子烟技术创新频繁，种类与口味较为丰富，2023年换弹式、 一次性与开放式占比分别为38%、 25%及36%，市场主要集中在欧美地区。雾化电子烟市场竞争激烈且集中度分散，尤其是一次性产品由 于技术门槛低、制作成本低与迭代较快而涌入大量玩家。 加热不燃烧(Heat-Not-Burn)的全球规模为345亿美元，2018-2023年的年复合增长率达到23.3%。虽然相 较之下HNB起步 ...

Group 1 - SMOORE International (06969.HK) closed at HKD 18.120 on May 23, marking a 2.49% increase from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of HKD 18.820, the highest in nearly a year [1] - The net capital inflow for the day was HKD 87.0088 million, with a total of HKD 39,232.538 million flowing in and HKD 30,531.660 million flowing out [1] Group 2 - SMOORE International Holdings Limited was established in 2009 and is a global leader in providing atomization technology solutions, owning one proprietary brand (VAPORESSO) and three technology brands (FEELM, CCELL, METEX) [2] - The company is headquartered in Bao'an District, Shenzhen, with nearly 20,000 employees [2] - SMOORE was officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on July 10, 2020, under the stock code HK6969 [2] - The company places a strong emphasis on technological innovation and research and development, with a total of 9 research institutes globally and a research team of over 1,000, accounting for nearly half of its non-production staff [2] - As of June 30, 2021, SMOORE had applied for a total of 2,612 patents and 566 trademarks, with 1,272 patents and 360 trademarks granted [2] - The company has received various certifications and honors, including "National CNAS Laboratory Certification," "International UL Safety Laboratory Certification," "National High-tech Enterprise Certification," and "ISO9001 Quality System Certification" [2]