证券研究报告 思摩尔国际 (6969 HK) 港股通 看好雾化主业修复，HNB 成长可期 | 华泰研究 | | | 公告点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 4 月 | 08 日│中国香港 | 消费轻工 | 风险提示：行业政策收紧，需求不及预期，新业务不及预期，关税加征风险。 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 (人民币百万) | 11,203 | 11,799 | 12,958 | 14,939 | 17,124 | | +/-% | (7.75) | 5.31 | 9.82 | 15.29 | 14.63 | | 归属母公司净利润 (人民币百万) | 1,645 | 1,303 | 1,323 | 2,140 | 2,762 | | +/-% | (34.47) | (20.78) | 1.54 | 61.71 | 29.08 | | EPS (人民币，最新摊薄) | 0.27 | 0.21 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well, driven by stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and market expansion [2][4]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the long-term outlook remains positive [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025-2027, the expected EPS is 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY, with corresponding PE ratios of 46, 23, and 17 times [4]. - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 19,489 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.45% [7]. - The net profit is expected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,451 million CNY in 2027, indicating a strong rebound in profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in profits for Q1 2025, with pre-tax and post-tax profits of 260 million and 190 million CNY, respectively, representing year-on-year decreases of 36.3% and 43.4% [2]. - The overseas compliance trend is improving, and the proprietary brand business is expected to continue performing well. The revenue is anticipated to grow due to stricter regulations on illegal vaping products and the expansion of the compliant market [2]. - Increased marketing investments in proprietary brand business and rising stock incentive amortization and R&D expenses are impacting short-term profit performance, but the overall profit impact is seen as temporary [3]. - The company is rationally addressing tariff impacts on its HNB (Heat-not-Burn) business, with a focus on markets in Japan and Europe, while the growth logic for HNB remains unchanged [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 11,168 million CNY, with a projected growth rate of -8.04% for 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.79%, 23.78%, and 20.45% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 1,645 million CNY, with a significant decline of 34.47% expected in 2024, followed by a gradual recovery [7]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.20, 0.40, and 0.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46, 23, and 17 [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its vaping segment, while the future of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products looks promising, although increased expenditure is impacting short-term profitability [1][2] - The company is expected to face challenges with disposable products due to tightening regulations in various countries, but there is potential for growth in the APV and HNB segments [2][3] - The U.S. market is crucial for the company, with expectations for the launch of new HNB products, which could enhance market share and revenue [3] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 192 million yuan, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year, with total comprehensive income of 208 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [1] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 11.799 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6%, and net profit expected to be 1.303 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 21% year-on-year [5][6] - The company’s adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.411 billion yuan, 2.337 billion yuan, and 3.032 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.9X, 24.1X, and 18.6X [4][5] Market and Product Insights - The company is positioned as a key supplier for British American Tobacco, which is expanding its HNB product offerings in various markets, including the U.S. [3] - The anticipated launch of the IQOS ILUMA in the U.S. is expected to further pressure traditional cigarette sales, leading to increased focus on HNB product development [3] - The company is expected to benefit from its unique production capabilities and technology, which may help mitigate tariff pressures in the U.S. market [4]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth in its vaping segment, while the future of Heat-Not-Burn (HNB) products looks promising, although increased expenses are impacting short-term profitability [1] - The company reported a net profit of 192 million yuan for Q1 2025, a decrease of 43.4% year-on-year, with total comprehensive income of 208 million yuan, down 32.9% year-on-year [1] - The report anticipates a stable revenue stream for Q1, with profit pressure primarily due to increased expenses and a higher tax rate compared to the previous year [1] Summary by Sections Market Environment - The report highlights regulatory changes affecting disposable vaping products in Belgium, France, and the UK, which are expected to pressure the company's performance in this segment [2] - The company is expected to see a recovery in its APV and refillable products overseas, with a trend of year-on-year improvement anticipated [2] HNB Product Development - The company is positioned to benefit from the expansion of HNB products in the US market, with expectations for the launch of new products by PMI [3] - The report notes that the US market is crucial for the company, with projected revenue and adjusted operating profit contributions of 44% and 54%, respectively [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 1.41 billion yuan in 2025, 2.34 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.03 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.9X, 24.1X, and 18.6X [4] - Total revenue is expected to grow from 11.8 billion yuan in 2024 to 17.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% [5] - The report outlines a decrease in net profit for 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with growth rates of 8% in 2025 and 66% in 2026 [5][7] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s total assets are projected to increase from 27.65 billion yuan in 2024 to 35.85 billion yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][7] - The report provides detailed financial metrics, including operating income, net profit, and earnings per share (EPS), with EPS expected to rise from 0.21 yuan in 2024 to 0.49 yuan in 2027 [5][6]

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 | [Table_StockAndRank] 思摩尔国际(6969.HK) | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 无评级 | | 上次评级 | 无评级 | [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮箱：jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 思摩尔国际：英美扩张节奏清晰，核心供应商 地位牢固 [Table_OtherReport] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 31 日 [Table_S 近期走访大量 ummary]HNB 企业，从业者对思摩尔 HNB 创新表现振奋。尽管市场 对英美推广节奏及思摩尔供应地位尚有疑虑，但根据我们跟踪，HNB 产业 链条长、从业企业主要聚焦细分领域，能一体化设计研发的企业少之又少， 加热技术、烟支结构、烟芯发烟、设备设计等 ...

事项： 证 券 研 究 报 告 思摩尔国际（06969.HK）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 自有品牌增长亮眼，HNB 成长可期 公司公布 2024 年业绩公告。2024 年公司实现收入 117.99 亿元，同比+5.6%； 归母净利润为 13.03 亿元，同比-20.8%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 11,799 | 12,944 | 14,876 | 16,832 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.6% | 9.7% | 14.9% | 13.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 1,303 | 1,514 | 2,029 | 2,455 | | 同比增速(%) | -20.8% | 16.2% | 34.0% | 21.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.33 | 0.40 | | 市盈率(倍) | 59.2 | 50.9 | 38.0 | 31.4 | | 市净率(倍) ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of HKD 16.59, maintaining the rating [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 11.799 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.32%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 1.303 billion, a decrease of 20.80% [1]. - The company is focusing on expanding its HNB (Heated Not Burned) product line as a second growth curve, with positive trial results for the new product glo Hilo [4][10]. - The company has increased its R&D investment to CNY 1.572 billion in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 41.30%, indicating a commitment to diversifying into nebulization technology and medical applications [4]. Revenue Performance - In 2024, the company's self-owned brand revenue grew by 34.00% to CNY 2.475 billion, accounting for 21.00% of total revenue [2]. - The revenue from enterprise clients was CNY 9.324 billion, a slight decrease of 0.30%, but showed a recovery trend with a 9.70% increase in H2 2024 [3]. - The company achieved revenue of CNY 6.762 billion in H2 2024, reflecting an 11.22% year-on-year increase [1]. Market Performance - The company experienced a strong recovery in the European and American markets, with revenues of CNY 4.24 billion and CNY 20.24 billion respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 14.00% and 37.20% [2]. - In H2 2024, the revenue from the U.S. and European markets was CNY 2.27 billion and CNY 10.95 billion, with growth rates of 8.83% and 11.61% respectively [2]. Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 37.39%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [9]. - The adjusted net profit margin for 2024 was 11.04%, down 3.69 percentage points year-on-year, with H2 2024 adjusted net profit margin at 9.17%, a decline of 6.18 percentage points [9]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are CNY 12.823 billion, CNY 14.475 billion, and CNY 16.878 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.68%, 12.88%, and 16.60% respectively [10]. - Net profit projections for the same period are CNY 1.476 billion, CNY 1.809 billion, and CNY 2.242 billion, with growth rates of 13.31%, 22.49%, and 23.94% respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 11.8 billion in 2024, representing a slight increase of 5.3%, while net profit decreased by 20.8% to HKD 1.3 billion. The second half of 2024 showed improved performance with revenue of HKD 6.76 billion, up 11.2%, and net profit of HKD 620 million, down 33.2% [1][2] - The company's proprietary brand business, including Vaporesso and MOYAL, saw significant growth, with revenue reaching HKD 2.48 billion, a 34.0% increase, and its revenue share rising from 16.5% to 21.0% [1] - The company is focusing on developing a heating not burning (HNB) product line, which is expected to become a second growth curve, with positive consumer feedback from its recent launch in Serbia [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of HKD 11.8 billion, a 5.3% increase, and a net profit of HKD 1.3 billion, a decrease of 20.8%. The second half of 2024 showed a revenue increase of 11.2% to HKD 6.76 billion, while net profit decreased by 33.2% to HKD 620 million [1][2] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.05 per share, with an annual dividend yield of 40.2% [1] Business Segments - The ODM business saw a slight decline in revenue to HKD 9.32 billion, with a first half decrease of 12.3% and a second half increase of 10.7%. The European market contributed HKD 5.1 billion, while the US market generated HKD 3.99 billion [2] - The proprietary brand segment showed strong growth, particularly in Europe and other markets, with revenue of HKD 2.02 billion, a 37.2% increase, and in the US, revenue reached HKD 420 million, a 14.0% increase [1] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the HNB product line, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in 2025. The focus on creating a comprehensive vaporization technology platform is anticipated to drive long-term growth [3] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of HKD 1.52 billion, HKD 2.00 billion, and HKD 2.52 billion, reflecting growth rates of 16.3%, 32.0%, and 26.0% respectively [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 11.799 billion and a net profit of 1.303 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +5% and -21% respectively. In the second half of 2024, revenue and net profit were 6.761 billion and 620 million, showing a year-on-year increase of +11% and a decrease of -33% respectively [2][4]. - The core business of the company is recovering growth, with the HNB (Heated Not Burned) segment showing potential as a future growth driver. The company has received positive feedback from consumers and British American Tobacco in Serbia [6][4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix with new launches and enhancing its market share in the open product segment through its brand VAPORESSO [6][4]. Revenue Summary - The company's revenue from the TOB (Business to Business) segment in the second half of 2024 increased by 11%, with contributions from various regions: +5% from the US, +17% from mainland China, and +14% from Europe and other regions. The revenue breakdown shows a decline in disposable products but growth in the HNB and APV (Advanced Personal Vaporizer) segments [6][4]. - The TOC (Business to Consumer) segment also saw a revenue increase of 13% in the second half of 2024, supported by the establishment of localized marketing teams and online store management systems [6][4]. Profitability Summary - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 37.0% in the second half of 2024, primarily due to changes in product sales structure. The net profit dropped by 33%, influenced by increased sales and R&D expenses [6][4]. - The company is investing heavily in marketing and R&D, particularly in the fields of medical vaporization and heated not burned products, which is expected to impact profitability in the short term but may yield long-term benefits [6][4]. Long-term Outlook - The company aims for a market capitalization target of 300 to 500 billion, with significant growth potential in the HNB business and a positive trend in traditional business recovery. The company is committed to long-term development and increasing investment in HNB and medical vaporization R&D [6][4]. - The company has launched the Glo Hilo product in collaboration with British American Tobacco, which has shown promising feedback in terms of heating time, taste, and design, indicating a competitive edge against existing products like IQOS [6][4]. - The company is also progressing in the clinical development of drug-device combination products for respiratory diseases, which is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in the future [6][4].