Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to MINISO (9896 HK) with a first-time coverage [3] Core Views - MINISO is transitioning from a value-for-money model to a higher-margin interest-driven consumption model, focusing on "big beauty", "big toys", and "big IP" to create super categories [2][7] - The company's growth is driven by both domestic expansion (super store strategy and lower-tier city penetration) and overseas market deepening (North America, Southeast Asia, and Europe) [2][7] - MINISO's supply chain advantage forms the foundation of its cost-effectiveness flywheel, enabling rapid and standardized channel expansion [5][6] Company Overview - MINISO is a global leader in trendy lifestyle home products retail, operating under the main brand MINISO and sub-brand TOP TOY [4] - As of 2023, the company has 6,413 stores globally, with 3,926 in China and 2,487 overseas [4] - In 2023, the company achieved RMB 13 8 billion in revenue, a 39% YoY growth, with a net profit of RMB 2 253 billion and a net profit margin of 16% [4] Business Model - MINISO adopts a "heavy backend, light frontend" model, leveraging its supply chain to enable low-cost, rapid expansion [5][22] - The company operates through three store models: direct-operated, partner, and agent, with partner stores being the majority [22][23] - MINISO's supply chain management system integrates suppliers into the entire process from product development to sales, ensuring efficiency and cost-effectiveness [27][28] Growth Potential - Domestically, MINISO is shifting from value-for-money to interest-driven consumption, with IP-designed products driving higher margins and customer engagement [6][43] - Overseas, the company is entering a phase of accelerated store expansion, particularly in North America, with local operations and marketing strategies driving growth [44][45] - The company's global store count reached 6,413 by 2023, with a focus on increasing store density in key markets [25][40] Financial Projections - The report forecasts MINISO's net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 2 84 billion, RMB 3 56 billion, and RMB 4 4 billion, respectively [7] - Based on the current market capitalization of RMB 45 7 billion, the PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 16x, 13x, and 10x [7]
名创优品深度报告：性价比中兴起，兴趣消费扬帆