Chengxin Lithium(SZ:002240) Haitong Securities·2024-06-26 06:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][14]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 7.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 34% year-on-year, with a net profit of 700 million yuan, down 87% [5][7]. - The company has successfully launched the Sabi Star project in Zimbabwe, which is expected to provide low-cost raw materials for its lithium salt business [5][6]. - The development of the Muroong lithium mine is a key milestone for the company, with a proven Li2O resource of 989,600 tons, making it one of the largest hard rock lithium mines in Asia [6]. - The company is expanding its lithium salt production capacity globally, with a total designed capacity of 140,000 tons, including a planned 60,000 tons in Indonesia expected to be operational in the first half of 2024 [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is expected to recover to 12.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected net profit of 1.69 billion yuan in 2026 [7][10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.81 yuan in 2024, 1.84 yuan in 2025, and 2.28 yuan in 2026 [7][10]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 12.5% in 2023 to 19.2% in 2025, before slightly declining to 14.7% in 2026 [9][10]. Valuation - The company is valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20-22 times for 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 16.20 to 17.82 yuan per share [6][8].