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亚钾国际:运营成本持续优化,钾肥新星静待启航

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights that the operational costs are continuously optimized, and the company is poised for growth in the potassium fertilizer sector [1] - The company is focusing on overseas production and collaboration with local enterprises to reduce logistics and electricity costs [1] - The long-term demand for potassium fertilizer is expected to be supported by rising food prices and limited mining resources [1] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is engaged in potassium salt mining, production, and sales, currently holding a potassium fertilizer production capacity of 1 million tons per year in Laos [1] - The company has established dedicated shipping terminals in Vietnam and Thailand to facilitate export [1] Financial Performance - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is estimated at 1.517 billion, 2.260 billion, and 2.844 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.8%, 49.0%, and 25.8% [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 3.898 billion in 2024 to 8.497 billion in 2026, with a corresponding increase in gross margin [5][7] Market Dynamics - The demand for potassium fertilizer is anticipated to rise due to increased agricultural production prices and limited domestic resources, leading to a reliance on imports [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in potassium fertilizer imports from Laos, which rose by 181.45% year-on-year in 2023 [1] Operational Developments - The company is working on expanding its bromine production capacity and aims to achieve 25,000 tons by 2024 [2] - The company has received government approval for its power station project, which is expected to reduce electricity costs by approximately 35% [1]