INNOCARE(688428) 华创证券·2024-06-26 23:01Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's BTK inhibitor, Orelabrutinib, is expected to see significant sales growth due to its exclusive indication for r/r MZL in China and inclusion in the national medical insurance [1][7] - The autoimmune disease market is identified as the company's second growth curve, with a global patient population exceeding 500 million and a Chinese patient population of approximately 80 million [1][7] - The company is expected to submit an NDA for Orelabrutinib's first-line treatment of CLL/SLL in China and for r/r MCL in the US within the year [1][7] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 911 million, 1.405 billion, and 1.734 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -614 million, -624 million, and -399 million yuan for the same years [2][8] - The company's valuation is estimated at 20.571 billion yuan, with a target price of 11.7 yuan [2][8] Product Pipeline - The company has 13 products in development, covering hematologic tumors, solid tumors, and autoimmune diseases [13][14] - Orelabrutinib is in Phase III for ITP and Phase II for SLE and MS, with plans to expand into other autoimmune diseases [14][15] - ICP-332 and ICP-488, targeting the JAK/TYK2 pathway, are in Phase II for atopic dermatitis and psoriasis, respectively [14][15] Market Performance - The company's total revenue for 2023 was 739 million yuan, an 18.1% year-on-year increase [13] - The company's market capitalization is 13.836 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 2.015 billion yuan [5] Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on expanding its indications for Orelabrutinib and developing new drugs in the autoimmune disease space [1][7] - The company is also advancing its pipeline in solid tumors, with the first product expected to be submitted for approval this year [1][7]