Proya(SH:603605) Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2024-06-27 02:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Proya Cosmetics with a target price revised to RMB135.57, reflecting a 35x 2024E P/E ratio [2][4]. Core Insights - Proya achieved impressive results during the 618 promotion event, ranking top on Tmall and second on Douyin in the cosmetic sector, with GMV growth of +70% on Tmall and +110% on Douyin year-over-year [2][3]. - The company's hero product strategy and increased discounts contributed significantly to its success, with the main skincare brand ranking first and second on Tmall and Douyin, respectively [2][3]. - The report raises 2024E and 2025E earnings estimates by approximately 20% due to the success in the 618 event and solid earnings in 4Q23 and 1Q24 [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB8,905 million in FY23A to RMB11,689 million in FY24E, representing a year-over-year growth of 31.3% [3][16]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB1,193.9 million in FY23A to RMB1,537.5 million in FY24E, reflecting a growth of 28.8% [3][16]. - The gross profit margin is anticipated to remain stable around 70.2% in FY24E, with a slight increase to 70.4% in FY25E [10][19]. Market Position - Proya's makeup brand made its debut in the top rankings on Tmall, achieving 80% YoY growth, while the hair care brand Off&Relax entered the top 10 with a 70% YoY increase in GMV [2][3]. - The company's market capitalization is reported at RMB31,853.5 million, with a current share price of RMB113.99, indicating an upside potential of 18.9% to the target price [4][5]. Earnings Estimates - The report revises the earnings estimates for FY24E and FY25E, with revenue estimates increased by approximately 20% to RMB11,689 million and RMB14,567 million, respectively [10][11]. - Net profit estimates for FY24E and FY25E are also raised to RMB1,537 million and RMB1,913 million, respectively, reflecting a growth of 28.8% and 24.4% [10][11].