三问三答，探究智飞生物经营拐点

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a potential operational turning point, with increased accounts receivable and inventory due to seasonal factors, but the risk of uncollectible accounts is considered low [5][13]. - The company has a strong grassroots sales channel, with a significant number of sales personnel, and has secured domestic agency rights for major products from Merck and GSK [6][23]. - The HPV vaccine is entering a mature phase, but there is still room for growth in vaccination rates among eligible women and potential expansion into male indications [6][25]. - The company has signed an exclusive distribution agreement for GSK's shingles vaccine, with projected minimum annual procurement amounts indicating confidence in the market potential [6][30][32]. - The company is expanding its product pipeline with self-developed vaccines and plans to acquire a biopharmaceutical company to enter the diabetes and obesity treatment market [6][37]. Summary by Sections Accounts Receivable and Inventory - In Q1 2024, accounts receivable increased by 11% to 30.03 billion yuan, while inventory rose by 40% to 12.61 billion yuan [5][13]. - The accounts receivable turnover days are significantly lower than peers, indicating efficient collection processes [16]. Operational Advantages and Growth Potential - The company has a robust marketing network covering all provinces and a large sales team of 3,990 personnel, which is much higher than industry peers [6][23]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 52.9 billion yuan, a 38% increase year-on-year, with agency business revenue growing by 48% [24]. - The company is focusing on a "second curve" of growth through new product launches and acquisitions [24][37]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a total of at least 10 yuan per 10 shares in dividends for 2023 and 2024, corresponding to a dividend yield of 3.5% based on the stock price [7][38]. - The company has completed a share buyback worth 300 million yuan [7][38]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.22 billion, 11.32 billion, and 12.71 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with respective growth rates of 14%, 23%, and 12% [9][40]. - The estimated reasonable valuation range for the company is between 38.50 and 46.20 yuan per share, based on a P/E ratio of 10-12 times [9][40].