EVE(300014) 国金证券·2024-06-27 06:02Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating with a target price of 54.74 RMB, based on a 23X PE multiple for 2024 [2][3] Core Views - The company is a leading platform-type lithium battery enterprise with over 23 years of development history, transitioning from consumer batteries to power and energy storage batteries [1] - In 2023, the company's revenue from power/energy storage/consumer batteries was 24/16.3/8.4 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of +31%/+73%/-2% respectively [1] - The energy storage battery sector is expected to benefit from industry consolidation, with the company's market share rising to second globally in Q1 2024 [2] - The company's power battery market share has steadily increased, reaching 2.3% globally in 2023 and ranking eighth [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.9/6/7.5 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of +20%/+23%/+25% [2] Business Segments Power Batteries - The company's power battery revenue in 2023 was 23.98 billion RMB, a 31.4% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 14.37% [9] - The company's power battery market share in commercial vehicles has grown significantly, with a 13.9% share in the domestic market in the first five months of 2024 [52] - The company has made breakthroughs in large cylindrical batteries, with mass production and vehicle installation of its 46-series ternary batteries expected in 2024 [2] Energy Storage Batteries - The company's energy storage battery revenue in 2023 was 16.34 billion RMB, a 73.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 17.03% [9] - In Q1 2024, the company ranked second globally in energy storage battery shipments, with a market share of over 30% in small-scale energy storage [36] - The company's flagship products, such as the LF560K and Mr. series, have achieved industry-leading performance in system efficiency (95%) and cycle life (12,000 cycles) [2] Consumer Batteries - The company's consumer battery revenue in 2023 was 8.36 billion RMB, a slight decline of 1.8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.73% [9] - The small cylindrical battery market is expected to recover in 2024, driven by the rebound in the electric tool industry and the lithium-ion trend in two-wheeled vehicles [2] - The company is a leader in lithium primary batteries, with a market share of over 30% in the global smart meter market [28] Industry Trends - The global demand for power and energy storage batteries is expected to grow significantly, with projected shipments of 1,360/1,723/2,139 GWh in 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of +28%/+27%/+24% [20] - The energy storage industry is shifting from low-price competition to quality competition, with longer lifespan and higher safety becoming key competitive factors [39] - The electric vehicle market is expected to maintain strong growth, with global power battery demand projected to reach 1,094/1,352/1,618 GWh in 2024-2026, driven by domestic and international markets [19] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 4.35 billion RMB in 2018 to 48.78 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 62% [10] - The company's net profit grew from 570 million RMB in 2018 to 4.05 billion RMB in 2023, with a CAGR of 48% [10] - The company's gross margin stabilized at 17% in 2023, with a slight increase to 17.6% in Q1 2024 [11] - The company's operating expenses have been declining, with the three major expense ratios (sales, management, and R&D) decreasing from 14.3% in 2018 to 10.1% in 2023 [11]