立华股份：点评报告：周期景气向上，业绩有望修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [17] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from an upward cycle in the industry, leading to a recovery in performance [2] - The production costs for meat chickens have significantly decreased, with the total cost dropping to approximately 6.3 yuan per jin in Q1 2024, and below 6.1 yuan per jin in March 2024 [4] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the yellow feather chicken market, with expectations of improved profitability due to rising prices and increased output [4] - The pig farming business is anticipated to turn profitable as pig prices rise, supported by reduced breeding costs [4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In May 2024, the company sold 41.48 million meat chickens, a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, generating sales revenue of 1.174 billion yuan [14] - Cumulatively, from January to May 2024, the company sold 194.34 million meat chickens, up 10.79% year-on-year, with total sales revenue of 5.485 billion yuan, a 9.59% increase [14] - For pigs, in May 2024, the company sold 93,700 heads, a year-on-year increase of 225.35%, with sales revenue of 19.4 million yuan [14] - From January to May 2024, cumulative sales of pigs reached 356,900 heads, up 17.36% year-on-year, with total sales revenue of 656.7 million yuan, a 40.38% increase [14] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.558 billion yuan, 1.320 billion yuan, and 1.450 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.88 yuan, 1.60 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [4][8] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12.16, 14.36, and 13.07 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][8] Production Capacity and Cost Management - The company has established a breeding capacity of 130,000 breeding pigs and an annual production capacity of 1.6 million market pigs [15] - The total breeding cost for pigs is targeted to be around 16 yuan per kilogram for the entire year, with Q1 2024 costs reported at approximately 17.6 yuan per kilogram, dropping to below 16 yuan in March [15]