NKF(603707) 华泰证券·2024-06-28 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.57, representing a 20% premium over comparable companies due to the company's lower reliance on API business [2] Core Views - The company's acquisition of the US FDA approval for "Yusimry," a biosimilar of Humira (adalimumab), is seen as a strategic move to expand its biologics portfolio and drive overseas growth [2] - The transaction is considered reasonably priced, with the potential for the company to quickly recoup costs given the significant market space for adalimumab [3] - The company's biologics business is expected to become a new growth driver, with four biosimilars under development and collaborations for insulin products in the US market [4] - Overseas formulations are expected to continue leading the company's growth, with Meitheal achieving RMB 1.63 billion in revenue in 2023 (+38% YoY) and 97 overseas approvals accumulated by the end of 2023 [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 3.93 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.71 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 20.33% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rebound from a loss of RMB 189.45 million in 2023 to RMB 1.66 billion in 2026 [6] - EPS is expected to increase from RMB 0.57 in 2024 to RMB 1.03 in 2026 [6] - ROE is projected to recover to 14.53% by 2026, up from -3.27% in 2023 [6] Business Segments - Overseas formulations: Strong growth driven by Meitheal's commercialization capabilities and a growing portfolio of overseas approvals, including peptides and complex formulations [5] - Domestic formulations: Recovery expected as the impact of volume-based procurement (VBP) is digested, with products like nadroparin and enoxaparin injections winning bids in the 8th VBP round [5] - APIs: The segment's contribution to overall revenue is expected to decline to below 20% in 2024, down from 25% in 2023, reducing its impact on the company's performance [5] Valuation - The company is valued at 30.62x 2024E PE, a 20% premium to peers, reflecting its lower exposure to API business and growth potential in biologics [2] - Comparable companies in the sector trade at an average PE of 25.52x for 2024E, with the company's premium justified by its strategic positioning [10]