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锦浪科技:2024年中报预告点评:逆变器量利双升,少年归来,Q2业绩大超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has released a mid-year earnings forecast for 2024, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 325-400 million yuan for the first half of 2024, with a midpoint of approximately 363 million yuan. The second quarter is expected to show a net profit of 305-380 million yuan, representing a significant increase of 13% quarter-on-quarter and 1589% year-on-year, greatly exceeding market expectations [3] - The increase in shipments of photovoltaic storage and a rise in overseas orders, along with a decrease in costs, are driving profit recovery. The company is expected to ship over 300,000 inverters in Q2 2024, with grid-connected and storage shipments estimated at approximately 280,000 and 20,000-30,000 units respectively. The grid-connected shipments are expected to increase by about 40%, while storage shipments are expected to more than double [3] - The company's power station business remains stable, with improved revenue from power generation in Q2. The self-owned scale of new energy power production and household photovoltaic systems is expected to remain stable at over 4GW, contributing over 100 million yuan in profit for Q2 [3] - Due to the recovery in profitability, the earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been raised, with net profits expected to be 1.20 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.12 billion yuan respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 54%, 38%, and 28%. The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 14, 10, and 8 times, with a target price of 66 yuan based on a 22x P/E for 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to increase from 6,101 million yuan in 2023 to 9,011 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.7% [2][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 779.36 million yuan in 2023 to 1,202.56 million yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year increase of 54.3% [2][8] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 3.00 yuan per share in 2024, up from 1.95 yuan in 2023 [2][8] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.41 in 2023 to 13.87 in 2024, and further to 10.07 in 2025 [2][8]