XIAOMI(01810) 招银国际·2024-07-01 01:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Xiaomi with a target price (TP) of HK16.54 [5][14]. Core Insights - The growth outlook for Xiaomi remains intact despite market concerns regarding margin impacts from rising memory prices and competition from the AI iPhone launch. The company is expected to continue gaining global smartphone market share, strengthen its AIoT sales, and ramp up EV shipments [2][3]. - Management has reiterated the annual delivery target of 120,000 units for the SU7 EV, with production capacity increasing to 20,000 units per month [3]. - Xiaomi aims to achieve a shipment target of 165 million smartphones in 2024, up from 146 million in 2023, supported by overseas expansion in various regions [3]. Financial Summary - Revenue for FY23 was RMB 270,970 million, with a projected increase to RMB 337,161 million in FY24, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.4% [4][17]. - Adjusted net profit for FY23 was RMB 19,273 million, expected to rise to RMB 22,974 million in FY24, reflecting a growth of 19.2% [4][17]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 0.77 in FY23 to RMB 0.92 in FY24 [4][17]. Earnings Forecast - The report outlines a revenue breakdown for FY24E, with smartphones contributing RMB 185,020 million, IoT and lifestyle products at RMB 93,264 million, and internet services at RMB 32,856 million [12][13]. - Gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 21.1% for FY24E, with smartphone margins slightly declining due to memory cost pressures [12][13]. Valuation - The valuation methodology includes assigning a P/E multiple of 15x for Xiaomi's smartphone, AIoT, and internet businesses, while the EV business is valued at 0.75x FY25E P/S [14][15]. - The total valuation for Xiaomi is estimated at RMB 581,175 million, with a target price of HK$25.39 based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis [14][15].