YTCO(600066) 国盛证券·2024-07-02 02:01Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066 SH) [2] Core Views - Yutong Bus is a leading Chinese bus manufacturer with a strong presence in both domestic and international markets, particularly in the new energy and overseas segments [1] - The company has achieved significant growth in exports, especially in the European market, with a 79% YoY increase in export sales in 2023 [1] - Yutong Bus has maintained stable dividends, with a cumulative dividend payout of 22 7 billion yuan since its IPO, exceeding the total funds raised [2] Company Overview - Yutong Bus has been a leader in the Chinese bus industry for over 60 years, with a comprehensive product portfolio covering all market segments [1] - The company has consistently ranked first in domestic sales of medium and large buses for 21 consecutive years, with 2 6 million units sold domestically in 2023 [1] - Yutong Bus has successfully entered the European market, with 500 new energy buses registered in the EU in 2023, contributing significantly to profitability [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, Yutong Bus achieved revenue of 27 04 billion yuan, a 24 1% YoY increase, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 82 billion yuan, a 139 4% YoY increase [5] - The company's free cash flow reached 2 05 billion yuan in 2023, with cash on hand increasing to 6 4 billion yuan [2] - Yutong Bus has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, with 3 32 billion yuan distributed in 2023 [2] Industry Outlook - The Chinese bus export market has entered a high-growth phase, with medium and large bus exports reaching 35,000 units in 2023, a 73% YoY increase [1] - The European market has become a key growth driver, with new energy bus exports to Europe reaching 1,600 units in 2023, a 49% YoY increase [1] - The average export price to Europe has risen to over 2 million yuan in 2024, reflecting the increasing demand for high-quality Chinese buses [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Yutong Bus's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 3 2 billion yuan in 2024, 3 9 billion yuan in 2025, and 4 7 billion yuan in 2026, representing YoY growth rates of 76%, 21%, and 21% respectively [2] - The current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 18 2x for 2024, 15 0x for 2025, and 12 4x for 2026 [2] Key Financial Metrics - Yutong Bus's revenue is expected to grow from 33 23 billion yuan in 2024 to 42 32 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 12 6% [5] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 23 2% in 2024 to 29 6% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [5] - Yutong Bus's EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 44 yuan in 2024 to 2 12 yuan in 2026, driven by strong earnings growth [5]