NJBK(601009) 东方证券·2024-07-02 07:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 12.04 CNY, while the current stock price is 10.39 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company is experiencing a turning point in operations, with a continuous recovery in ROE expected [2]. - The major shareholders have increased their stakes, and the new management team is expected to inject vitality into the company's development [2]. - The company has a solid foundation in regional economic growth, with credit demand anticipated to outperform [13]. - The company has successfully cleared significant existing risks, indicating a turning point in risk management [32]. - The performance growth momentum is expected to be upward, with ROE likely to remain leading among peers [38]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 44,606 million CNY, with a projected growth of 9.0% year-on-year. For 2023, revenue is expected to be 47,635 million CNY, with a growth rate of 1.2% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 18,408 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The forecast for 2023 is 18,502 million CNY, with a growth of 0.5% [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2022 was 1.74 CNY, projected to be 1.68 CNY for 2023 [1]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve, with a year-on-year increase of 1.85 percentage points to 13.21% by the end of 2024 [2]. Operational Highlights - The company has completed plans to add 100 new branches, which are expected to enter a capacity release phase, supporting future asset expansion [30]. - The company has maintained a strong public sector loan ratio, with over 70% of loans directed towards public sector clients, which has helped stabilize asset quality [22]. - The company has successfully diversified its loan portfolio, reducing concentration risk, with the largest single customer loan ratio down to 1.53% [34]. Risk Management - The company has adequately provisioned for existing large risks, with significant impairment losses recognized in recent years, leading to a clearer outlook on asset quality [32]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio has decreased to 0.83% as of Q1 2024, indicating improved asset quality [35]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in terms of valuation and dividends among core city commercial banks [2]. - The anticipated growth in net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is projected at 10.4%, 11.9%, and 14.6% respectively [3].