LI AUTO(02015) 国金证券·2024-07-02 10:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][6]. Core Insights - In June 2024, the company achieved sales of 47,700 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.7% and a month-on-month increase of 36.4%. Cumulatively, sales reached 189,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 35.8% [2]. - The L6 model significantly contributed to the sales performance, with an estimated delivery of 25,000 units in June, surpassing market expectations of 20,000 units. The backlog of orders for the L6 model is close to 80,000 units, with approximately 20,000 new orders added monthly [2]. - The company is optimistic about achieving monthly sales of 50,000 units in Q3, driven by strategic adjustments in product offerings and sales strategies, focusing on the L6, L7, L8, and L9 models [3]. - The company is entering a new vehicle cycle with five new models set to launch between 2024 and 2025, which is expected to enhance long-term growth prospects [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 123.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 324.0 billion RMB by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 51.3% from 2024 to 2026 [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 11.7 billion RMB in 2023 to 26.2 billion RMB by 2026, with a notable growth rate of 681.65% in 2024 [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 5.52 RMB in 2023 to 12.35 RMB by 2026, indicating strong profitability growth [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 26.67 in 2024 to 9.56 by 2026, suggesting improved valuation as earnings grow [4].