贵州茅台：释放风险，提升价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [4]. Core Viewpoints - Guizhou Moutai's management has actively engaged with investors to address concerns regarding the recent decline in the price of its flagship product, Feitian Moutai, which has seen a rebound of approximately 250 yuan from its June lows [4]. - The company is currently in an adjustment phase, influenced by macroeconomic cycles, industry trends, and its own operational cycles. This price adjustment is seen as a necessary step to mitigate risks and enhance resilience [4]. - A series of strategic measures have been implemented to stabilize prices and boost market confidence, including the cancellation of certain product policies and increased communication with distributors [4]. - The international market remains a key focus, with plans to enhance the company's global presence, as international revenue currently accounts for less than 3% of total sales [4]. Financial Summary - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 86.8 billion, 95.9 billion, and 106 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 10% [4]. - The current market valuation corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 20, and 18 times for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating that the stock is trading at historical lows [4]. - Key financial metrics include total revenue projections of 173.2 billion yuan for 2024, with a growth rate of 15.05% [10].