wanhua(SH:600309) Guoxin Securities·2024-07-03 08:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The successful commissioning of the first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project marks a significant breakthrough in China's self-sufficiency in POE production, which has previously relied heavily on imports [2][5] - The global demand for POE is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11% from 2023 to 2029, with China's demand potentially growing even faster at an estimated CAGR of 18% from 2021 to 2025 [5] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 19.384 billion, 22.473 billion, and 23.337 billion yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of +15.3%, +15.9%, and +3.8% respectively, with corresponding EPS of 6.17, 7.16, and 7.43 yuan [2][18] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project was successfully commissioned on June 29, 2024, marking the first large-scale self-developed POE industrial facility in China [2] - The company is a leader in the polyurethane industry, providing stable profit guarantees while steadily advancing new projects [18] Market Analysis - The POE market is characterized by high concentration, with the top five global producers holding approximately 96% of the market share [5] - The main applications for POE are in the photovoltaic and automotive industries, with the photovoltaic sector accounting for about 45% of total consumption and the automotive sector for approximately 38% [3][4] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 19.384 billion, 22.473 billion, and 23.337 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 6.17, 7.16, and 7.43 yuan [2][18] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 13.0, 11.2, and 10.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [18]