Naruida(688522) 国海证券·2024-07-07 01:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 48.50 RMB [10][23] Core Viewpoints - The company has officially launched the TDKFT0104 Ku-band dual-polarization active phased array radar, targeting the low-altitude economy development application scenario [19] - The new radar product is expected to significantly enhance the company's competitive edge and expand its application scenarios in fields such as 3D transportation, border protection, and airspace management [27] - The company is expected to benefit from the accelerated penetration of dual-polarization active phased array radar in meteorological and water conservancy fields, as well as potential breakthroughs in civil aviation, defense, and low-altitude economy sectors [23] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 212 million RMB in 2023 to 1.388 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 175% from 2023 to 2024, 70% from 2024 to 2025, and 40% from 2025 to 2026 [8][23] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 63 million RMB in 2023 to 667 million RMB in 2026, with growth rates of 279%, 86%, and 49% for the respective years [8][23] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 3% in 2023 to 21% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [8][23] Industry and Market Analysis - The low-altitude economy sector is gaining momentum, with the company's new radar product expected to play a crucial role in this emerging market [19][27] - The meteorological and water conservancy radar market is expected to see increased demand, driven by government initiatives and infrastructure projects [22] - The company's new radar product is estimated to have a potential market of approximately 2,290 units in Guangdong Province alone, based on the low-altitude economy development needs [27] Product and Technology - The TDKFT0104 radar is capable of detecting and tracking "low, small, and slow" targets within a 5 km range and providing high-resolution 3D low-altitude meteorological information within a 30 km range [27] - The product integrates advanced technologies such as dual-polarization full-coherence, intelligent radar data processing, and multi-source data fusion, making it suitable for complex urban environments [19][27] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 129.05 in 2023 to 15.74 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [8][23] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 3.92 in 2023 to 3.27 in 2026, reflecting improved asset efficiency [8][23] - The P/S ratio is forecasted to drop from 40.39 in 2023 to 7.57 in 2026, suggesting a more favorable valuation relative to sales [8][23]