Tesla(US:TSLA) Huajing Securities·2024-07-07 03:01Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of Tesla (TSLA US) to "Buy" with a target price of US$282.13 [1][2][15] Core Views - The electric vehicle (EV) delivery volume and energy storage installation in Q2 2024 exceeded market expectations, leading to an upgrade in the rating [1][2] - The fundamentals of the EV business are improving, with potential valuation increases for FSD, Robotaxi, and robotics businesses [2][8] - The report anticipates continued strong performance in energy storage installations in Q3 and Q4 2024 [1][2] Summary by Sections Delivery and Installation Performance - Q2 2024 EV delivery reached 443,956 units, a year-on-year decline of 4.8% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.8% [1] - Energy storage installation reached 9.4 GWh, representing a year-on-year growth of 157.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase compared to the average of 3.7 GWh in 2023 [1][8] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised by 6.5%, 5.8%, and 5.5% to US$102.31 billion, US$122.67 billion, and US$146.64 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -5.7%, 19.9%, and 19.5% [2][8] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2024-2026 have been increased by 7.9%, 6.5%, and 5.9% to US$11.93 billion, US$15.66 billion, and US$19.61 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 31.3%, and 25.2% [2][8] Valuation Adjustments - The P/E ratio for Tesla's automotive business has been adjusted to 90 times for 2024, up from the previous estimate of 50 times, while the energy storage business valuation has been raised to 10 times P/S from 5 times P/S [2][15] - The new target price of US$282.13 reflects these adjustments, significantly up from the previous target of US$151.31 [2][15] Market Catalysts - Key catalysts for the stock price increase include the approval of Elon Musk's US$56 billion compensation plan and the introduction of favorable financing policies for Model 3 and Model Y in China [2][8] - Anticipation of the Robotaxi launch on August 8 is expected to further enhance market sentiment [2][8]