昆仑能源：天然气高效发展，价值重估进行时

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 10.71 [1][13] Core Views - Retail gas volume growth is expected to outperform peers in 1H24, driven by industrial gas growth [13][14] - Retail gas price spread may face slight pressure in 1H24 due to structural factors and LNG competition [13][15] - LNG terminal utilization rate is expected to rise year-on-year in 1H24, with long-term growth potential in the southeastern coastal market [13][16] - Core profit for 2024-26 is forecasted at RMB 6.46/6.73/7.11 billion, with a dividend payout ratio expected to increase to 42% in 2024 [13] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2022-2026E is projected at RMB 171,944/177,354/180,491/185,325/194,539 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.11%/3.15%/1.77%/2.68%/4.97% [7][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022-2026E is forecasted at RMB 5,228/5,682/6,457/6,726/7,105 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.69%/8.68%/13.65%/4.15%/5.65% [9] - EPS for 2022-2026E is projected at RMB 0.73/0.71/0.75/0.78/0.82 [10] - ROE for 2022-2026E is expected to be 9.00%/9.21%/9.87%/9.68%/9.67% [10] Valuation Metrics - PE ratio for 2022-2026E is estimated at 11.40x/11.66x/11.09x/10.65x/10.08x [11] - PB ratio for 2022-2026E is projected at 1.20x/1.13x/1.06x/1.00x/0.95x [11] - EV/EBITDA for 2022-2026E is forecasted at 6.30x/5.46x/4.93x/4.69x/4.40x [12] Market Position and Growth Drivers - Retail gas volume growth in 1H23/2023 was +9.5%/+9.2%, outperforming the national average of +5.6%/+7.6%, with industrial gas volume growing +11.1%/+15.5% [14] - LNG terminal utilization rate in 1H23/2023 was 81.8%/90.6%, with 1H24 expected to see a year-on-year increase [16] - The Fujian LNG terminal, which started construction in late 2023, is expected to enhance the company's market position in the southeastern coastal region [16]