NANSHAN ALUMINIUM(SH:600219) Tebon Securities·2024-07-09 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanshan Aluminum (600219.SH) [1] Core Views - The company expects a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, projecting a range of CNY 1.971 to 2.151 billion, representing a growth of 50.11% to 63.82% [1][2] - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the full release of 2 million tons of alumina capacity in Indonesia and a substantial increase in alumina product prices [2] - The company has a total alumina production capacity of 5.4 million tons planned, with a tight supply-demand structure expected to maintain high alumina prices [2] Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are CNY 318.48 billion, CNY 341.77 billion, and CNY 367.33 billion respectively, with net profits expected to be CNY 38.40 billion, CNY 41.96 billion, and CNY 46.15 billion [2][6] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same years are forecasted to be 12.23, 11.19, and 10.17 respectively [2][6] Production Capacity and Market Dynamics - The company has a total of 3.4 million tons of alumina production capacity, with plans to expand to 5.4 million tons [2] - The average price of first-grade alumina in Henan reached CNY 3,507.52 per ton in the first half of 2024, marking an increase of 18.33% year-on-year [2] Stock Performance - The stock has shown a relative increase of 9.80% over the past month and 20.28% over the past three months compared to the CSI 300 index [4]