TIANSHAN ALUMINUM(002532) 华创证券·2024-07-09 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Tianshan Aluminum, with a target price of 9.98 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [1]. Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum's performance in the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations, driven by rising prices of aluminum ingots and alumina. The company achieved a net profit of 2.07 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 103%, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.96 billion CNY, up 168% [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 is projected to show significant growth, with an expected net profit of 1.35 billion CNY, representing a 161% year-on-year increase and an 88% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The increase in profits is attributed to a 7% rise in the average selling price of self-produced aluminum ingots and a 26% increase in alumina prices compared to the previous year [1]. - The report anticipates that aluminum prices will remain high due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions and supply constraints, which will support Tianshan Aluminum's profitability [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 28.975 billion CNY, with a slight increase to 30.182 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2% [2]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 4.219 billion CNY, a significant increase of 91.3% compared to 2023 [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 0.47 CNY in 2023 to 0.91 CNY in 2024 [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 17 in 2023 to 9 in 2024, indicating improved valuation metrics [2].